The agriculture and food sector is expected to generate about $10.4 trillion in value to the nation's economy this year, up almost 10% from 2025 and representing a fifth of total national output, even though the value of U.S. ag exports declined, a new report finds.

The 2026 Feeding Our Economy study estimates an $894 billion year-over-year increase in the overall value created by the country's food and ag industries. Growth is expected despite a challenging farm economy, inflation pressures and uncertain trade environment, according to a statement from the Corn Refiners Association, one of the report's 35 sponsors. 

The 10th annual study takes a "farm-to-fork" approach, examining agricultural production and food manufacturing to processing, distribution, retail and food service, CRA President and CEO John Bode said. The outlook underscores the crucial role of agriculture and the entire food supply chain within the economy and society in general, the report's backers said. 

"Unless food is made by a Michelin three-star chef, it's not as sexy as say, the new iPhone or the emerging AI technology," said Maryland farmer Karl Shlagel. "But as an industry – food, agriculture, all the further processing, everything it takes to get the steak on your plate – we play a vital role in the economy. We generate revenue, we generate wages, we generate tax income, and we're still just as vibrant as we were one hundred years ago, one thousand years ago."

Research for the analysis was conducted by John Dunham & Associates and funded by the Goodstone Group, according to the report released Monday. 

Slower job growth, trade woes 

About one in five U.S. jobs, or 48 million, will be in ag and food this year, generating about $3 trillion in wages, with earnings up 4% from a year ago and 13% over the last decade, according to the study. Still, while direct employment has grown 6.5% over the past decade, job growth slowed in the past year as parts of the sector faced economic pressures.

The report suggests the food and agriculture sector will generate $1.35 trillion in tax revenue for federal, state, and local governments, a 7% increase from last year. 

U.S. food and ag exports for 2026 are seen declining to about $177 billion, roughly $5.4 billion lower than 2025. Export value is expected down 5 .5% from a year ago and almost 10% over the last decade, when adjusted for inflation, according to Bode. 

"We see some troubling statistics that point to the need for a stronger trade environment for American food and agriculture," Bode said. "The American farm economy needs positive trade relationships, and I hope to see this number turn around in next year's report."