California’s bearing almond acreage declined this year for the first time in decades, reflecting mounting pressure from weak profitability, high production costs and slowing new plantings across the state’s signature tree nut industry.
According to a new acreage estimate released last week by the Almond Board of California and Land IQ, California’s bearing almond acreage is projected at 1.386 million acres for the 2026 crop year, down 15,227 acres over the past year. The report marks the first decline in bearing acreage since 1995.
The acreage drop comes after several years of broader contraction in the almond sector. Total almond acreage has already fallen for four consecutive years, while growers continue pulling out orchards at a rapid pace. Land IQ estimated 47,588 acres of removals this year, following nearly 49,200 acres removed during the last crop year.
Industry leaders pointed to a combination of economic and regulatory pressures reshaping planting decisions. Almond prices have struggled to keep pace with rising labor, fertilizer and water costs in recent years, while implementation of California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act has tightened water availability in some growing regions.
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The industry’s slowdown also reflects a sharp decline in younger orchards entering production. Land IQ’s earlier 2025 acreage report found nonbearing acreage had fallen to about 105,000 acres, less than half the average level seen during the almond boom years of the past decade.
“While we’re seeing stabilization in bearing acreage, global demand remains strong and is the foundation of our industry,” said Almond Board President and CEO Clarice Turner in a statement accompanying the report. She said continued investment in export and market development remains critical to the industry’s long-term outlook.
Despite acreage losses, California almonds remain one of the state’s most important export commodities, with growers still shipping more than 200 million pounds per month into domestic and international markets in recent years. California produces roughly 80% of the world’s almonds and virtually all U.S. commercial supply.
The acreage report does not forecast this year’s production volume. The next major estimate for the 2026 crop is expected from USDA in May.
The acreage decline also comes amid changes in industry forecasting. The Almond Board voted last year to stop funding USDA’s annual Objective Measurement Report after the 2025 season, ending a longstanding statistical survey that growers and handlers relied on for crop sizing.
