U.S. phosphate prices may already be beyond their low point for 2026, a fertilizer analyst said Tuesday.
“Nobody wants to look at this thing right now, because it’s early May. There's a long time until the next application season,” StoneX Vice President of Fertilizer Josh Linville said Tuesday. “As ridiculous as it sounds, we may have already seen the lowest price of phosphate for 2026.”
Mosaic, the U.S.’ largest producer, announced this week that it is cutting back production over high input prices. Meanwhile, China is restricting exports until at least August, Saudi Arabia continues to face logistical challenges in the Middle East, and Russian and Moroccan fertilizer producers are also struggling with sky high sulfur prices.
“If the market doesn't go higher, we're going to run the risk of shutting down even more production,” Linville said during a StoneX market intelligence segment. “The input costs are so high, it surpasses what the market is today.”
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In its earnings call earlier this week, Mosaic CEO Bruce Bodine offered a similar assessment, pointing out that rising sulfur costs are eating into the company’s profit margins. He stressed that if the economic climate doesn’t improve, the company stands ready to curtail production even further.
“These are the difficult decisions that we are looking at day to day and watching what happens in the Middle East,” he said during an earnings call Monday.
Arlan Suderman, StoneX’s chief commodities economist said Tuesday that he would expect energy shortages in Europe and Asia to become more pronounced in June and July if the supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz aren’t eased.
“Probably 2027 crops will be where the story is,” he added.
