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Australia is experiencing record growth in almond production, and its success – while still small in global market terms – could put added pressure on a California industry that has been struggling to maintain its dominance.
Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, said he didn’t think California’s almond growers faced serious competition from anywhere until about six months ago, when he began to notice Australia’s emerging presence.
“Unfortunately, you can produce all the almonds you need for India in other places” besides California, Friedmann said during the North American Agricultural Journalists’ annual meeting in Washington, D.C., in April.
Powered by export demand from China and India, Australia’s production has doubled over the last decade, with its roughly 163,000 planted acres expected to yield 166,892 tons this year – a 7% increase over 2025, according to the Almond Board of Australia. The nation could add another 24,710 acres and produce a 200,000-ton crop by 2030, a Rabobank report suggests.
Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agricultural Transportation Coalition, speaks on a panel at the North American Agricultural Journalists’ annual meeting in Washington, D.C., in April. (Tim Hearden/Agri-Pulse)That growth positions Australia solidly as the world’s second-largest almond producer behind California, where the USDA estimates growers will harvest 2.7 billion pounds from nearly 1.4 million bearing acres in 2026.
While Australia’s industry is tiny in comparison, occupying only about 10% of the global market share, “anything that jeopardizes market space and access for our products is another cut to an already hurting industry,” said Ryan Jacobsen, a Fresno, Calif., almond grower and CEO of the Fresno County Farm Bureau.
“It doesn’t take a lot of production to take things out of balance,” Jacobsen told Agri-Pulse.
Favorable trade agreements have helped Australia become China’s top source for almonds, with more than half its shipments going to the Asian nation, according to the Almond Board of Australia. While the U.S. remains a major supplier to Asia, retaliatory tariffs on American nuts has given Australia a competitive advantage.
Still, Tim Jackson, the ABA’s chief executive officer, sees the California industry as more of an ally than an adversary.
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“The California industry has taught us a lot over the years,” he told Agri-Pulse via Zoom, noting that his organization has teamed with the Almond Board of California on research related to water and pest management. The fact that the two regions’ harvests are at opposite times of the year enable researchers to gather data twice as quickly, he said.
“We have common enemies,” he said, meaning pests and diseases, “so we work together and pool our knowledge to be as productive as we can.”
Lindsay Tello, the Almond Board of California’s senior adviser of trade policy, agrees. She noted the two organizations also work together to address import and regulatory barriers that impede free and fair trade everywhere.
“ABC is focused on long-term demand growth, customer education, and maintaining strong relationships with key industry stakeholders throughout the Asia region,” Tello said in an email. “Asia remains one of the most dynamic and strategically important regions for California almonds, driven by increasing consumer interest in health and wellness.”
While Australia is projecting growth, the California almond industry is unlikely to grow much if at all, asserts Dan Sumner, director of the University of California Agricultural Issues Lab in Davis. Water scarcity and environmental regulations will keep production down, curbing growers’ recent practice of expanding plantings to marginal ground, he said in an email.
“As the world demand grows with income expansion, especially in Asia, there is room enough for Australia,” Sumner said. “My understanding, including visits to the Murray River area in Victoria, is that Australia is also near its peak. Other growers like Spain and Turkey also face complications from water” and other challenges, he added.
“Short answer: Australia is no real threat, but rising costs in California are,” Sumner said.
Friedmann largely blames California’s loss of market share on inefficiencies at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, where unions have lobbied to restrict automated technology to protect jobs. Sumner doesn’t think transport is a big issue.
“Maybe Australian almonds could be shipped a little cheaper to Indonesia or India, but ocean miles are very cheap for a big batch of almond containers,” he said.
