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Beijing is applying the same strategy it used to build export dominance in manufacturing industries to certain food products, analysts say, building production hubs, picking national champions and offering subsidies. The push is primarily a drive for self-sufficiency, but could also reshape regional food trade and supply chains.
Late last month, Systemiq, an energy and climate consultancy, published a report on China’s food security strategy, noting that in successive Five-Year Plans, China has turned the might of its central government to reducing import reliance and bolstering self-sufficiency.
The authors argue that China is in “year zero” of transforming its food system, but that efforts to channel financial support and subsidies into research and infrastructure and create regional industry clusters are also helping develop export markets.
The food policy approach is first and foremost an effort to reduce import reliance. China could cut its soybean imports by a quarter in the next four years the authors argue – or by 23.5 million tons, around the volume of total U.S. annual sales to China.
Agri-Pulse has previously reported on this effort, which also includes accelerating crop breeding to lift productivity.
But in the longer term, the policy approach is also likely to turn China into a key regional exporter of several animal products, as well as processed food products, the report finds.
“The coming 12 to 18 months are critical,” the report says, with industry growth dependent on the scale of investment into biomanufacturing, innovation and demand side efforts.
“China has reshaped global supply chains before, when strategic priorities aligned with industrial capability,” it adds. “The question is no longer whether it is applying that capability to food, but how fast, and whether others are preparing accordingly.”
‘Selective’ ambition
The 14th Five-Year Plan, which ran from 2021 to 2025, was the first to identify food security as a priority. Since its inception, China’s agricultural exports have risen from around $78 billion in 2021 to around $108 billion in 2024, according to Chinese state-run media, with just a handful of products making up the bulk of these exports – seafood, vegetables, fruits, animal protein products and beverages.
“This is an export ambition that is selective and not universal,” Matthew Nicol, a policy analyst at the European Union-China Legal Economic Reform Agenda (EUCLERA), told Agri-Pulse in an interview.
EUCLERA's Matthew Nicol (LinkedIn photo)“It's more about how you deal with surplus in certain areas and targeting export competitiveness in areas where traditionally China's already quite strong,” Nicol said, adding that it is also part of a concerted push to “move up the value chain” in agricultural output.
As with previous efforts to boost Chinese export competitiveness, the central government has come up with concrete timelines and goals to realize its ambitions, Nicol noted. The Communist Party Central Committee’s “No. 1 Document” published earlier this year outlined the government’s priorities for rural growth and placed a much stronger emphasis on export promotion than previous iterations.
“They've said explicitly by 2030 [they want] to cultivate a minimum of 50 firms with annual exports above $100 million in value, and a further minimum 600 firms who are exporting above a $10 million value,” Nicol said.
China’s customs agency has implemented new inspection services for ag exports, designed to cut clearance times in foreign markets. China’s Export and Credit Insurance Corporation, known as SINOSURE, has also launched specialized insurance options for exports destined to over 150 countries.
China built its manufacturing prowess on industrial clusters – geographic areas that focus on specialized industries like textiles, electronics or vehicles. By clustering industries, companies could benefit from shared infrastructure and a specialized local workforce, and knowledge and innovation could be disseminated more quickly. Local universities often focused education and training on the same industry areas, and local governments adopted favorable policies and subsidies.
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In the food and agriculture space, Beijing “is clearly trying to consolidate county-level export clusters into stronger national champions,” Nicol said.
Cold chain infrastructure is expanding in areas like Shaanxi and Sichuan, Nicol said, allowing fruit and vegetable exporters to reach new export markets. Guangzhou and Fujian are also emerging as hubs for processing and manufacturing finished food products.
Competitor or accompaniment?
Chinese food exports in recent years have primarily gone to other Asian economies. Nine of the 10 largest purchasers of Chinese food products are Asian countries, according to data from World Integrated Trade Solutions, with Japan taking the most at almost $6 billion in 2023.
In the fresh fruit export category, which grew 20% in 2024 alone, 10 economies – including eight in Asia – accounted for almost three-quarters of all exports. The value of China's exports is also expanding, according to an industry source granted anonymity to speak frankly about the situation. The average price per pound for Chinese grapes and pears, as well as other fruits, in Asia has increased in recent years, "indicating growing demand for premium Chinese produce in Asia," the industry figure said.
Beijing has also been deepening trade ties with sub-Saharan Africa, with a particular focus on food. The thrust of this effort has focused on lowering trade barriers for African ag exports. China reduced tariffs to zero for all 53 African countries earlier this month and is speeding up inspection and quarantine processes.
But the continent is also a target for Chinese processed food exporters, Nicol said.
“If you look at the markets that they're trying to increase sales to – so Southeast Asia, the Middle East, some parts of Africa, and then Central Asia,” Nicol said, “these are markets that can absorb that surplus seasonal output. But then they can also absorb things like processed products with lower price points.”
The lower price point is key, Nicol said, as it could mitigate the impacts of China’s export drive on U.S. food producers.
“In the main, that they'll be inhabiting two different price points,” Nicol said. “There's, of course, the possibility on the Chinese side that we see some strong gains in particular places,” but he noted that U.S. exporters to Southeast Asia and Africa are selling premium products.
“It's a different kind of game that you're playing,” Nicol added.
