WASHINGTON, May 9, 2014 – U.S. wheat supplies for the marketing year beginning June 1 will total 2.7 billion bushels, down 10 percent from the current year, as continuing drought and freeze events cut production, USDA said today. The report contained the department’s first projections for the 2014-2015 crop year.

Overall wheat production for 2014-2015 will fall to 1.963 billion bushels, from 2.13 billion bushels this year, USDA said. Total wheat use for the new crop year is forecast to fall 11 percent, to 2.166 billion bushels, partly as exports decline because of tighter supplies and higher prices.

Wheat production in Ukraine for the 2014-2015 crop year is projected at 20 million metric tons, down from 22.28 million in the current year, the USDA said, citing “lower reported area and a return to trend yields.” Exports are forecast at 8.5 million tons, down from 9.5 million.

Some other forecasts from today’s report:

-Corn ending stocks for 2014-2015 will rise to 1.726 billion bushels, up 50 percent from the current year as exports decline and with lower feed use as animal numbers fall. With the larger carryout, farm-gate prices for the season are seen averaging $4.20, down from $4.65 for 2013-2014.

-U.S. soybean production for 2014-2015 is projected at a record 3.635 billion bushels, up 346 million bushels from the 2013 crop on record yields and harvested area. Global soybean production is seen rising 5.6 percent to almost 300 million metric tons, mostly because of the bigger U.S. crop.

-All-rice supplies for 2014-2015 are forecast up 6 percent, leading to a 17 percent increase in ending stocks.

-The first U.S. cotton projections for 2014-2015 include larger production and higher ending stocks. The U.S. crop is seen at 14.5 million bales, partly based on the March Prospective Plantings report. Exports are forecast at 9.7 million bales, down 7 percent due to lower anticipated world demand.

-Pork production for 2014 is seen at 22.7 billion pounds, down 2.3 percent from 2013. Production is expected to increase to 23.2 billion pounds in 2015, “as producers respond to the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) by increasing farrowings and feeding hogs to heavier weights.”

USDA said its crop projections for 2014-2015 are “highly tentative” because spring planting is still under way in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere.


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