DES MOINES, Oct. 15. 2014 – A new report by the Global Harvest
Initiative (GHI) indicates that global agricultural productivity is not
accelerating fast enough to meet the expected agricultural demand for
sustainable production by 2050.
“This
year’s report shows a clear gap that could dramatically impact people all
around the globe,” said Margaret Zeigler, executive director of GHI, speaking
at the World Food Prize Symposium. “Raising productivity across all regions and for
farmers of any size and scale requires long-term investments and sustained
focus if we are going to have sufficient nutritious and affordable food and
agriculture.”
The GHI’s
fifth annual Global Agricultural Productivity Report (GAP Report) shows that,
for the first time in several years, global agricultural productivity is not
keeping up with trend lines.
The GAP
Index is based on the measurement of total factor productivity (TFP), the ratio
of agricultural outputs to inputs. Total factor productivity rises when outputs
increase and inputs remain constant.
In 2010,
GHI first calculated that global agricultural TFP must grow by an average rate
of at least 1.75 percent annually in order to double agricultural output
through productivity gains by 2050.
But since
2002, TFP has been rising by an average annual rate of only 1.69 percent.
While
Zeigler says that rate may not seem much lower – when the rate is compounded
over the next 40 years, output would grow by 94 percent – falling short of the
target by 6 percentage points.
If these
trends continue, the impact would hit hardest on low income, food-deficit
countries and their consumers.
“Such
countries lack the income to produce and import sufficient food to meet
nutritional needs and, consequently, stagnant or declining productivity will
raise prices and the proportion of income required to buy food,” the report
notes. “Poor urban households bear the brunt of higher prices in those
countries and rural populations suffer, too, since they are typically net food
buyers.”
The lack
of productivity growth can also lead to less sustainable production, as growers
expand farmland, potentially endangering fragile tropical forest zones and
placing greater demands on existing water resources.
Zeigler
says the report serves as a “call to action” for public and private sector
investments in “proven strategies that boost productivity and conserve the
natural resource base.”
Several agriculture experts joined
Zeigler in presenting the 2014 GAP Report at today’s release event, including:
Keith Fuglie, branch chief of USDA’s Economic Research Service; Dilip Kulkarni,
president of Jain Irrigation Systems Agri-food Division; Thomas J. Herlehy,
practice area manager for crops, Land O’Lakes Inc. International Development
Division; and Jesus Madrazo, vice president, corporate engagement, Monsanto,
and GHI board chairman.
Several speakers emphasized the
importance of public and private sector investments in agricultural research
and extension in order to educate growers and increase innovation.
Some 50 years after the original
“Green Revolution,” the 2014 GAP Report also provides a spotlight on the
special case of India.
India has made tremendous progress,
becoming self-sufficient in food grains and initiating the “White Revolution”
in dairy production, the report notes.
“But today India faces new
challenges: a rising middle class demands a more diverse diet, malnutrition
continues to plague millions, and lower water availability and climate change
pose significant threats. India is at a crossroads and must harness new
policies and scale up innovation to realize its potential to provide food and
better nutrition.”
In addition, the GAP Report’s regional
analysis uncovers significant productivity gaps:
- In East Asia, only 67 percent of food demand by 2030
will be met from within the region if the current rate of productivity
growth is maintained.
- At current rates of productivity growth, Sub-Saharan
Africa is projected to meet only 15 percent of food demand in 2030, which
will require significant imports, or food assistance, or opening up new
land to development that may not be suitable for sustainable production.
- In Latin America, overall regional production is
expected to exceed demand with Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and
Uruguay leading this increase in productivity.
The full 2014 GAP Report is
available on the GHI website, www.globalharvestinitiative.org
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