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Balanced Reporting. Trusted Insights.
Saturday, March 25, 2023
The Agriculture Department reduced its fiscal 2023 forecast for U.S. ag exports to $190 billion, a $3.5 billion drop from the agency’s last estimate in August, largely reflecting weaker expectations for soybean sales.
The U.S. and some allied nations won a key battle last week in Rome over the international acceptance of the livestock industry’s ability to use a key growth-promoting drug, but the European Union, China and others managed to barely block a full victory.
Brazil has been steadily planting more corn in recent years, and production may be on the verge of explosive growth as farmers double and even triple crop to take advantage of high prices, Chinese demand and a rising domestic ethanol sector.
Some of the top U.S. ag leaders are quietly discussing potential ramifications if China ramps up its aggression toward Taiwan and Russia continues its invasion of Ukraine.
Bipartisan agreement on the need for the U.S. and Taiwan to strengthen ties through a trade pact was on display Wednesday at a House Ways and Means Committee hearing, although Republican lawmakers were mostly critical of the Biden administration’s decision not to negotiate a traditional free trade agreement that requires approval from Congress.
The 2022-23 soybean marketing year starts officially on Thursday, and signs indicate exports will get off to a strong start. USDA data shows China is buying heavily, but marketing and education efforts by U.S. farm groups are paying off as demand is also growing in places like Egypt.
U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai argued against lifting tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods Wednesday, saying it would not do much to ease inflation and would remove key leverage she has in negotiations with China.
Congress last week made it clear that ocean carrier companies cannot “unreasonably” refuse to book space on ships for U.S. ag exports, but now it’s up to the Federal Maritime Commission to decide exactly what that means and the fate of foreign markets for U.S. some farm commodities is at stake.
The USDA said Friday bumped up its forecast for U.S. soybean exports and dropped its prediction for ending stocks as Chinese demand remains strong and competition from Brazil is less than expected.
