A 10-year forecast for global agriculture projects that worldwide food consumption will increase by 1.4 % per year over the next decade, with the increase primarily concentrated in low to middle-income countries.
The report by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development highlights the important role agricultural exports from Russia and Ukraine have in global food security. Russia and Ukraine are the first and fifth largest wheat exporters in the world, accounting respectively for 20% and 10% of global exports, the report said.
“These rising prices of food, fertilizer, feed and fuel, as well as tightening financial conditions are spreading human suffering across the world,” FAO Director-General QU Dongyu said. “An estimated 19 million more people could face chronic undernourishment globally in 2023, if the reduction of global food production and food supply from major exporting countries, including Russia and Ukraine, results in lower food availability hitting worldwide.”
Income levels will largely determine the changes in food demand and diet. The report said countries with lower incomes are expected to consume mostly staple foods, and that food consumption is not projected to increase enough to reach the United Nations' sustainable development goal of Zero Hunger by 2030.
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Middle-income countries are expected to increase their food consumption, especially of fats and animal proteins. Countries with high income levels are most likely to decrease their consumption of sugar and animal protein due to health and environmental concerns.
Over the next decade, it is expected the demand for first generation biofuel feedstocks will decrease, due to the lack of legislative incentives and a decrease in fuel use in European Union countries. However, India and Indonesia are expected to increase their use of biofuel because of increased demand.
Yield increases are projected to account for 80% of global crop production growth over the decade. Cropland expansion is expected to account for 15% of the growth. Cropland expansion is expected to be concentrated in Asia, Latin America, and sub-Saharan Africa.
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