USDA economists are increasing their estimate of food price inflation this year and for 2023, saying that prices will rise more slowly next year but still above the historical average. 

USDA’s Economic Research Service projected Tuesday that supermarket prices will rise 11% to 12% this year and 2.5% to 3.5% in 2023. Both the 2022 and 2023 estimates were a half percentage point higher than the forecast in September. 

Cereals and bakery products are expected to see the highest price increases in 2023 at 5% to 6% while increases of 4% to 5% are projected for poultry and for fats and oils. 

Prices for fruits and vegetables are expected to decline slightly in 2023. 

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While avian influenza has had a significant effect on food inflation this year, all categories have seen substantial price rises. Eggs are projected to be 27% higher for this year over 2021, while poultry prices are expected to about 14% higher. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month that supermarket prices rose 0.7% in September, driven by increases in nearly every category, and that food costs are now up 13% over the past 12 months. 

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