Over the last several months, American families have seen the soaring cost of eggs at groceries across the US–if there are even eggs on the shelves at all. This is tied directly to the bird flu epidemic, which is forcing farmers to cull their birds and reduce egg supply.
Last week, the Trump administration laid out a thoughtful and decisive plan to lower egg prices for consumers. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins’ plan will focus on five pillars, ranging from biosecurity measures to financial relief for farmers. This quickly follows USDA’s decision to provide conditional approval for a bird flu vaccine in poultry, a critical first step.
I lead Innovate Animal Ag, a nonprofit think tank working with American farmers to improve animal health and welfare. We help producers harness innovative free market technologies to solve critical agriculture challenges and improve productivity. We’ve seen firsthand the devastating effects this virus has had on our poultry producers and the birds under their stewardship.
To lower egg prices, full approval of a bird flu vaccine for poultry is the logical next step. The egg and turkey industries support vaccination and are pushing the administration on poultry vaccination. Providing full approval doesn't have to cost taxpayers a dime–we just need to let farmers use all available tools to do what’s best for their business and the health of their animals.
Undertaking a vaccination campaign for the US layer flock is the only reliable way to bring egg prices down to historic levels and stay there. Other countries have successfully vaccinated their poultry flocks, greatly decreasing the impact of the epidemic. Still, this would be a massively complex undertaking that could take years to come to full fruition. As a result, Rollins is right to act now.
Previously, the Biden administration’s USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service depopulated nearly 150 million birds in an attempt to stamp out the virus, spending over $1.5 billion in taxpayer funds. These depopulations, carried out by the government, often used methods that did not fully meet the American Veterinary Association’s standards of humane treatment. As Fox has reported, this “kill all the chickens” approach didn’t stop the virus from spreading. As a result, consumer egg prices skyrocketed from $1.47 per dozen when Biden took office in January 2021 to $4.95 per dozen when he left.
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Without a long-term solution, even if egg prices come back down in the short term, which could happen due to the seasonality of the virus, prices will spike again. If you'll recall, this isn't the first time egg prices have been in the news because of bird flu. In late 2022 and early 2023, prices were nearly as high as they are now. The last time bird flu appeared in 2015-2016, there was a smaller, but still noticeable price increase. Each time, prices came back down, but the underlying problem remained unsolved.
Many experts now believe the virus has become endemic, with year-round detections in wild birds suggesting this pattern of price spikes will continue indefinitely without vaccination.
Additionally, the longer bird flu is allowed to circulate in livestock populations, the greater the risk of a human pandemic. While experts currently believe the chances of this are relatively low, the potential costs are staggering, so we should take steps to mitigate this risk as much as possible. The Institute for Progress estimates that the economic cost of this possibility in expectation is $640 billion.
Over the last four years, the Biden administration did not pursue poultry vaccination out of fear of harmful effects on international trade for chicken meat. Simply put, poultry vaccines make it harder to detect asymptomatic shedding of the virus, making it difficult for an importer to know if the chickens they’re importing have bird flu. But vaccinating layers shouldn’t affect broiler exports whatsoever because they’re two completely different supply chains. An egg-laying hen in Michigan should be able to be vaccinated without it affecting whether our trade partners will accept a broiler chicken from Mississippi.
Trump can counteract this fear by pressuring our trade partners to allow American producers to export poultry meat even if there is a vaccine campaign for the egg and turkey industries. Previously, under Biden, USDA restricted imports from countries using the poultry vaccine, even if restricted to a narrow segment of the industry. The Trump administration can implement a more rational policy that evaluates risk based on the specific product being imported. And if other countries are hesitant to do the same, the Trump administration should hold their feet to the fire.
The path forward is clear. Let's not walk on eggshells around trade partners or bureaucratic concerns. Farmers need full approval for a poultry vaccine to get back to what they do best—feeding America at prices we can all afford.
Robert Yaman is CEO of Innovate Animal Ag, a nonprofit think tank that works with the poultry industry.
