China remains behind the pace needed to make good on its commitments to buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of the year. But officials insist the deadline isn’t moving.
As of Tuesday, confirmed soybean sales to China since October had reached 6.4 million tons, according to Agriculture Department data. Multiple analysts say the figure could be around 9 million tons if all the sales to unconfirmed destinations are included. Under the terms of a deal President Donald Trump struck with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, China is supposed to buy 12 million tons by the end of 2025, according to a White House fact sheet.
Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, is doubtful China can meet a year-end deadline.
It is “hard to imagine that they would buy 3 million tons in the next week,” he said.
U.S. soybean exports still face a 10% retaliatory tariff in China. Accordingly, Sutter said, private importers, which have no way around the tariff, have eschewed U.S. beans and exporters have had to rely on sales to state-owned enterprises.
“The Chinese are fulfilling the agreement between the presidents,” Sutter said, but added, “it's maybe going slower than what the U.S. would have hoped.”
But Sutter noted that the Dec. 31 deadline may not be as firm as initially believed.
In recent weeks, administration officials have suggested the deadline could run into 2026. Earlier this month Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that China’s deadline for purchasing 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans was, in fact, Feb. 28. Meanwhile, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told senators the volume referred to exports during this “growing season,” which he said could run until March.
However, two administration officials told Agri-Pulse Tuesday that the deadline has not moved.
“The deadline for soybean purchases with China has not changed,” Kate Lair, deputy assistant USTR for public and media affairs, said in an email.
Follow our tracker of Chinese soybean purchase commitments
She added that the administration expects “China’s purchases to take place largely during the last two months of this year, even if the actual shipments would not take place until later in the sales period for the growing season.”
A White House official offered an identical explanation when approached for comment. Neither the White House nor USTR responded to a question on what action the administration would take if China falls short of its purchase target.
Of the more than 6 million tons of soybeans ordered since October, only 273,000 had been shipped by Dec. 11, according to USDA data.
Virginia Houston, director of government affairs at the American Soybean Association, said that in conversations with industry representatives, officials have been citing the Feb. 28 deadline for the 12 million-ton purchase commitment, with an additional 25 million tons in sales next year.
An end-of-February deadline, Houston said, should be enough time to hit the 12 million-ton target.
We “are confident that China will hit their commitments,” Houston said. “We know that they value the partnership with U.S. soybean farmers.”
Shawn Arita, a professor at North Dakota State University and former USDA economist, also said Beijing should be able to meet its obligations by the end of February, particularly given the uptick in purchases in recent weeks.
But Arita said without a formal written agreement, “it is not entirely clear what the operative deadline is.”
Sutter, however, said focusing on a specific deadline may not be the best way of thinking about the U.S.-China trade relationship.
“This is different than the Phase One agreement,” he said, which came with a hard and fast timeline and long list of specific market-opening measures. “It doesn't have all the precision – the precise details – that some people would like.” Rather than an all-encompassing and binding deal, Sutter said the October pact agreed to in Busan, South Korea, was primarily to get bilateral trade relations “back on track.”
Sutter said he would be satisfied as long as the administration ensures U.S. soybean sales reach at least 27 million tons by the end of the next calendar year – 12 million from this year, plus the 25 million promised in 2026.
“I don't want them to double count,” Sutter said. But he added that “in my book, [the Chinese] are moving well along on that path."
Instead of getting too fixated on specific deadlines, Sutter said the officials would be better served by ensuring bilateral trade relations remain on stable footing and both sides keep working to address trade frictions.
“We need to focus on making sure we have a continued, good resolution of all the disagreements between China and the U.S. so we can have a normal season next year,” Sutter said. “If we get China in a good spot,” Sutter added, Beijing may even exceed its soybean purchase targets next year.
“We just want open trade so buyers can buy based upon what they want,” Sutter added.
For more news, go to Agri-Pulse.com.
