China will fulfill both its near-term 12-million-ton and 25-million-ton minimum soybean purchase commitments under a bilateral deal. That's according to Undersecretary of Agriculture for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg.
“They are meeting the commitments that are anticipated by the agreement,” Lindberg told Agri-Pulse in a wide-ranging interview on Friday.
Following a meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders in October, the White House said that China had committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans “during the last two months of 2025,” and another 25 million tons in the 2026 calendar year.
By the end of 2025, however, U.S. exporters had reported around 7 million tons of confirmed sales since late October – with up to 3 million additional sales with unknown destinations. Reuters reported this week that China’s state-owned Sinograin has bought 10 more cargoes, which could bring the total close to 10 million tons. USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service is reporting confirmed sales since October of almost seven and half million metric tons
“So far, we've seen about 10 million metric tons of soybeans purchased,” Lindberg said, adding that the administration still expects China to fulfill its 25-million-ton commitment after the 12 million ton-pledge is met.
“We'll be tracking closely the additional 25 million metric tons per year going forward,” he said. Lindberg did not provide a specific date by which he expects the 12-million-ton pledge to be met.
The two sides have not publicly released any text of an agreement, but Lindberg said that there will be plenty of opportunities in the coming year to put pen to paper. President Donald Trump said last year that he would visit Beijing in April and has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to the U.S. later in the year.
Xi is also expected to attend a Group of 20 nations meeting in the U.S. next year, and officials have said Trump could attend an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in China in November.
“Always around those leader-level touch points are opportunities for negotiating and deal announcements to be made,” Lindberg said. “This is going to be a dynamic year for U.S.-China trade relations.”
The priority for agricultural talks with Beijing right now, Lindberg noted, is getting China to live up to its commitments under the Phase One deal.
Registrations for nearly 500 U.S. facilities eligible to export beef to China expired last year and have not been renewed. Addressing that lost market access, as well as other backsliding or unmet Phase One commitments, Lindberg said, is front of mind.
It’s not just China. The U.S. has multiple ongoing trade pact negotiations with partners, including Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines. Julie Callahan, chief agricultural negotiator at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, was in Indonesia this week for trade talks. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is supposed to be in Washington later this month to sign a bilateral deal, according to Indonesian press reports.
Recently, the Financial Times has suggested that Indonesia may be backing away from several commitments it made. But Lindberg said that he expects the agriculture provisions announced last summer will be part of the final deal.
Those provisions included measures to streamline U.S. agriculture exports and boost purchases of soybeans, soybean meal, wheat and cotton.
“I have no reason to believe that they won't hold, or that anything has shifted at this point in time,” Lindberg said. Administration officials are slated to lead a trade mission to the country in early February.
“We're looking to drive that bus right through that door,” Lindberg added.
Lindberg spoke to Agri-Pulse ahead of a planned Trade Reciprocity for U.S. Manufacturers and Producers (TRUMP) trade mission to Malaysia – the fourth TRUMP mission since the Agriculture Department launched them in 2025. The third was in the European Union in November.
As part of his engagement with U.S. trading partners and foreign governments, Lindberg noted that he has had early conversations about potential trade barriers emerging from a future bird flu vaccine.
In February, the administration unveiled a multi-pronged plan for tackling avian flu. As part of that plan Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said that officials would gather feedback and examine pathways for vaccination. In the past, countries – including the U.S.—have imposed import restrictions from vaccinating countries over concerns vaccines could hamper infected bird detection.
Lindberg said that USDA has been working with state and local partners to “see what makes sense” when it comes to vaccinations.
In his conversations with trade partners, however, Lindberg said the response to potential vaccinations has been “muted.”
“It has not been a forefront agenda item for many of our trading partners around the world,” he said. “But we also understand that syncing up at some point in time and coming up with a little bit more of a plan that is synergistic makes some sense."
"But we have not heard a loud outcry at this point in time," he added.
However, Lindberg reiterated that the administration’s core agricultural trade priority heading into 2026 remains reducing the agricultural trade deficit.
The U.S. had the largest agricultural trade deficit on record in the 2025 fiscal year, at $43.7 billion, but USDA expects it will shrink in FY2026.
Lindberg pointed out that as Trump took office in 2025, USDA was forecasting a FY2025 trade deficit of around $50 billion. In its latest forecast, USDA estimates the FY2026 will fall to $37 billion.
“It is trending in the right direction,” Lindberg said, but added the administration is “not done yet.”
“We need to get back to a trade surplus,” he said, “so we're working hard to make sure that we continue to chip away at that deficit.”
For more news, go to Agri-Pulse.com.
