The Bureau of Reclamation has released an environmental analysis of several options for post-2026 Colorado River guidelines as the states that share the river continue tense negotiations over its future. 

In an environmental impact analysis released Friday, Reclamation laid out several potential frameworks for handling water deliveries amid future shortages. The frameworks come as the agency tries to plan how to oversee water deliveries from key federal dams along the river while state negotiators attempt to reach a deal over how future drought-driven cuts will be applied.

A decision on post-2026 Colorado River guidelines will be made before Oct. 1 of this year, according to a press release published by the agency.  

Among the options presented by Reclamation in the analysis is a "basic coordination alternative," which is "designed to be implemented absent new agreements among Basin water users," according to an executive summary of the options. 

Lower Basin shortages up to 1.48 maf would be triggered based on Lake Mead elevation and distributed consistent with priority system

Under this framework, "Lower Basin shortages up to 1.48 [million acre-feet] would be triggered based on Lake Mead elevation and distributed consistent with priority system shortages," according to the summary. Lake Powell releases would generally be based on elevation. Shortages for Lake Mead deliveries would be based on priority. Lake Powell releases would range from 7 to 9.5 million acre-feet.

Another option, the "enhanced coordination alternative" — which is based on concepts suggested by tribes, federal agencies, and others — suggests determining shortages based on the combined storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Shortages would begin when these reservoirs are 60% full at a volume of 1.3 million acre feet, and then "increase linearly" until they reaching a maximum of 3 million acre-feet. 

Under this system, reservoir releases would range from 4.7 to 10.8 million acre-feet, and Lake Powell releases would be determined "based on a combination of Lake Powell and Lake Mead elevations, 10-year running-average hydrology, and Lower Basin deliveries."

A third "maximum operational flexibility alternative" is based on suggestions by conservation organizations. Lake Powell releases under this system would range from 5 million acre-feet to 11 million acre-feet and would be determined based on combined seven-reservoir storage and recent hydrology. Shortage designations would begin when the reservoirs drop to 80% full, and "increase linearly" to a maximum of 4 million acre-feet.

Finally, the agency also suggested a "supply driven alternative," in which annual Lake Powell releases would be determined based on a "65 percent of 3-year average natural flow" at Lees Ferry, Arizona, often seen as a dividing line between the Upper and Lower Basins. 

Under this system, shortages would be determined based on Lake Mead's elevation, triggering at 1,145 feet. Releases would range from 4.7 to 12 million acre-feet, according to the document.

In a press release, Assistant Interior Secretary for Water and Science Andrea Travnicek said the agency is "moving forward with this process to ensure environmental compliance is in place so operations can continue without interruption when the current guidelines expire. 

"The river and the 40 million people who depend on it cannot wait. In the face of an ongoing severe drought, inaction is not an option," she said. 

According to Reclamation's press release, the document will be published to the federal register on Jan. 16, kicking off a 45-day public comment process. While it only addresses domestic operations, the U.S. is separately in talks with Mexico over post-2026 operations, the release said.

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