Discussions around extending a moratorium prohibiting duties on digital trade, and India’s rice subsidies will be on the agenda next week when officials meet at the World Trade Organization’s 14th ministerial conference, analysts say.
Possible reforms to the WTO's processes also are expected to be under discussion.
At a Ways and Means trade subcommittee hearing Tuesday, representatives from U.S. industries and trade analysts told lawmakers the U.S. should advocate for continued protections to digital trade, seek to make progress in reform discussions and stay firm in its opposition to India’s rice subsidies.
Trade ministers will descend on Yaoundé, Cameroon, from March 26-29 for MC14 as the organization faces intense criticism from the U.S. and others. The consensus-driven body has struggled in recent years to advance negotiations on the most-pressing trade issues, including agricultural subsidies, and members are braying for reform.
Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in a statement last week that the forthcoming meeting will be a “Turning Point Ministerial,” in which the organization needs to show it “is up to the job of taking criticism seriously and using this to reposition itself."
Reform discussions are likely to face an uphill battle, however. The U.S. last week rejected a workplan on the scope of reform negotiations over the next two years. Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Joseph Barloon argued that discussions “are not sufficiently mature” to allow for a specific workplan at this time.
Countries are still at odds over how to handle provisions in agreements that give developing countries more flexibility – known as “special and differential treatment” provisions – as well as how to adjust the body’s dispute settlement mechanism.
“There's not a meeting of the minds between the member states as to what they want,” Kelly Ann Shaw, who was deputy assistant to the president for international economic affairs in the first Trump administration, told the committee. Shaw is now a partner at the Akin law firm.
“Europeans want an international court,” she said, but the U.S. prefers a body to resolve disputes against two WTO members without creating a “global precedent” that might limit future trade negotiations or regulatory efforts.
Without consensus on how to proceed, Shaw said the U.S. should maintain its stance of blocking the appointment of appellate judges, which has hobbled the dispute settlement appeals process since 2019.
“I think we probably are in the best position we can be,” she said. “We really sent the message to the WTO that judicial overreach shouldn't happen.”
Analysts noted that the prospects for advancing U.S. interests are more likely in discussions around digital trade. At the last ministerial conference in 2024, members agreed to extend a moratorium on imposing tariffs on electronic transmissions and keep digital trade tariff-free until the end of this month.
The U.S. has signaled that it will push to make the moratorium permanent at the upcoming conference.
The prospect of a permanent moratorium was widely supported by members of the Ways and Means Committee. Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo., said “it is critical that we settle this once and for all.”
India, South Africa and Indonesia opposed a two-year extension in 2024, however, and only reversed their positions after an eleventh-hour intervention from the hosts, the United Arab Emirates.
As part of a recent trade deal with the U.S., the Indonesian government pledged to support efforts to extend the moratorium this time around. But India could still pose a threat to negotiations, particularly if makes it support conditional on advancing its agriculture goals – as it tried to do at MC13.
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The U.S. will need to “hold the line,” on Indian efforts to secure protections for its public stockholding program for rice, USA Rice Federation President and CEO Peter Bachmann told lawmakers. There can be “no backsliding,” he said.
The Indian government supports domestic producers by buying rice through a public stockholding program. While the WTO allows for such programs, other rice-growing countries, including the U.S., have complained that India’s government-purchased rice ends up on global markets and undercuts global producers.
At the 9th ministerial conference in 2013, members agreed not to challenge public stockholding programs in developing countries, on the presumption that a permanent solution would be found. But India and other developing economies have opposed efforts to more tightly regulate government purchases and have pushed for more flexibility.
The USA Rice Federation has been working with international governments and industries to rally opposition to India’s efforts.
“We feel confident that next week, India won't make any progress on their public stock holding efforts,” Bachmann told Agri-Pulse after the hearing.
Industries in Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina and a raft of central American countries are in line with the U.S. sector’s thinking on the issue, Bachmann said. In a WTO filing this week, Australia, Paraguay and Ukraine also agreed with the U.S. position that India is underreporting its rice and wheat subsidies.
“We may see some developing countries that have been coerced, perhaps, by India that show up and provide some level of support for their position, but I don't expect much,” Bachmann added.
U.S. officials, Bachmann said, have also used recent negotiations with India to push back on what he called “market distorting behavior” in the rice industry.
The administration has also signaled that it could mount an investigation into unfair trade practices in global rice markets, which Bachmann argued during the hearing would give the U.S. even more leverage.
Similarly, the recently announced probes into industrial overcapacity and forced labor could add to the pressure, Bachmann said.
“What we see coming down the pike is more opportunity to gain leverage over India,” Bachmann told lawmakers.
Lasting progress on the issue though, Bachmann said, will require working with allies to confront the problem.
Trump’s mixed WTO feelings
The Trump administration has, at times, taken a skeptical approach to the WTO. It paused payments of U.S. fees last March, before reversing that decision in October and quietly making the back payments. The administration has also broken with one of the WTO’s founding principles: that tariff rates should apply equally to all countries without a free trade agreement, without discrimination.
It has, however, also underscored key WTO agreements in its recent deals with U.S. trading partners. The top U.S. trade official, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, is also set to attend MC14, according to a USTR official.
Lawmakers from both parties and analysts during Tuesday’s hearing stressed that the WTO still has an important role to play in global agricultural trade and advocated for continued U.S. leadership and engagement at the organization.
“We stand at a critical juncture with respect to the relevance of the WTO,” Trade Subcommittee Chair Rep. Adrian Smith, R-Neb., argued in his opening statement. “Significant reform,” he said, is necessary. But he added that he remains “optimistic.”
“Strong U.S. leadership at the WTO, with support and oversight from U.S. Congress, can deliver,” he added.
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