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U.S. agriculture could be on the precipice of securing lucrative export gains to Cuba, industry representatives argue, as the island's growing private sector and increased interest from the Trump administration offer new trade opportunities.
“It’s an important moment,” said Paul Johnson, chair of the United States Agriculture Coalition for Cuba (USACC). Johnson returned from his latest trip to the island in March, where he saw the impacts of an ongoing energy shortage first hand.
“There's this crisis,” he said, which has ravaged local agricultural production and created a need for food assistance and increased food imports.
But unlike in previous periods of poor government-to-government relations, a burgeoning private sector offers a path to deepening economic relations without going through Havana. Under this new economic climate, broadening U.S. agriculture exports, Johnson and others say, can be compatible with the Trump administration’s foreign policy approach. And with Marco Rubio helming the State Department, the administration has a rare opportunity to reset the terms of the U.S.-Cuban economic relationship.
Comerse un cable
Cuba-U.S. relations have been deteriorating since a temporary thaw under the Obama administration, but even by U.S. and Cuba standards, the second Trump administration has seen a ratcheting up of tensions.
In January, the administration imposed new restrictions on oil shipments to the island and authorized tariffs on countries that sell oil to Cuba. Senior Trump administration officials, including Rubio – whose parents are Cuban immigrants – have been clear that the goal is to foster political change in Cuba.
The new energy restrictions, coupled with longstanding underinvestment in Cuba’s energy infrastructure and other structural challenges, have led to rolling blackouts and an energy crisis, according to analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations.
“No sector in Cuba's society is untouched, including our farms,” Cuban Ambassador to the U.S. Lianys Torres Rivera told participants at a recent embassy event.
She said disruptions to irrigation and refrigeration systems, as well as challenges securing pesticide and fertilizer, have contributed to a 40% drop in the island’s agricultural activities.
“There's a food crisis and food insecurity is growing,” Johnson said. “Agriculture can help fix that, whether it's through more trade or building capacity – building developments – in agriculture in Cuba.”
Paul Johnson (LinkedIn photo)
Unlike previous periods of heightened U.S.-Cuba tensions, the latest political frictions have landed amid a rapid expansion of the island’s private sector, which Johnson believes offers a unique opportunity.
In 2021, the Cuban government opened most of the Cuban economy to private enterprises for the first time, keeping only a small minority of industries under public control. In the following three years, more than 11,000 small- and medium-sized businesses were approved, and in 2023, the private sector overtook the public sector in retail trade, according to policy organization the Cuba Study Group.
The growth of the private sector has brought significant opportunities for U.S. agriculture exporters. Exports to the island of more than 10 million people have grown from less than $200 million in 2020 to around $500 million in 2025, according to a recent USACC report.
Poultry has been a particularly bright spot, accounting for around $300 million of last year’s exports, the report notes. Trade has also diversified, with other meat, dairy, horticultural and grain exports also jumping.
Critically, because this is the result of private-sector to private-sector dealings without the involvement of government, fostering this growing agricultural trade relationship should be compatible with the Trump administration’s goals.
Rubio has suggested that Cuba’s government could avoid more sanctions if it takes steps to further liberalize its economy. Recent U.S. restrictions on oil also included carveouts for the private sector. The administration allows U.S. companies to resell Venezuelan oil to Cuba’s private sector, even though it has blocked direct sales to Havana.
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Rubio is “talking about private sector development. He's talking about economic growth,” Johnson said.
A 2026 boom year?
2026 exports are already on pace to build on the successes of recent years, particularly for rice. Peter Bachmann, president and CEO of USA Rice, told Agri-Pulse that in the first two months of 2025, U.S. exporters had logged 1,000 metric tons of rice shipments to the island. In 2026, that figure was five times higher.
“With that growing private sector, we see more opportunity to sell rice there right now,” Bachmann said.
Peter Bachmann (LinkedIn photo)But Bachmann notes that with some U.S. policy adjustments, exports could be further unleashed.
The biggest barrier U.S. agricultural exporters face when dealing with Cuba’s private sector is access to short-term credit, Bachmann said, with importers forced to make up-front cash payments.
With the Cuban economy deteriorating, Bachmann is concerned this could soon become a drag on exports.
In USACC’s latest report, Johnson makes recommendations for strengthening bilateral agricultural trade. Several, like allowing U.S. investment in Cuba’s burgeoning private agricultural sector under general license and using Foreign Market Development (FMD) and Market Access Program (MAP) funds to support exports to Cuba, could be implemented without changing existing laws. But Johnson is also pushing to open access to credit for Cuban importers of U.S. agricultural products, which would require a change in statute.
For that, Johnson said, lawmakers would need a clear signal from the Trump administration.
“Nobody wants to get ahead of Rubio or Trump on this,” Johnson said. “There's a lot of support, but it's a lot of quiet support.”
Some barriers to U.S. ag exports would also require further action from the Cuban government. Dalton Henry, vice president of policy at U.S. Wheat Associates, told Agri-Pulse that the government still has a strong foothold in the flour milling sector, for example.
When U.S.-Cuba relations deteriorated following the Obama administration, the Cuban government pivoted to Canadian and European wheat, he said.
“It’s 90 miles off the coast of Florida. It's right there. And yet, we're bringing Canadian wheat all the way down the coast to get there,” Henry said.
U.S. wheat typically holds around 80% of the market share in Caribbean countries due to the geographical proximity. If U.S. exporters could replicate that success in Cuba, Henry believes it could unlock a new half-million-ton market.
Dealmaker in chief?
Trade negotiations have been a hallmark of the second Trump administration so far, and with Rubio holding a prominent cabinet position, the industry representatives told Agri-Pulse they are hoping that the two sides can reach a deal that would allow for increased market opportunities for U.S. agriculture – be it through trade or aid.
“Could we see the potential where the Trump administration and Cuban government come to some terms of an agreement or changes that would enable U.S. food assistance?” Henry asked. “There is a real shortage of food and significant challenges with paying for basic supplies in Cuba, and we would be a natural fit.”
Rubio’s ties to the South Florida Cuban population could ensure lasting change in U.S.-Cuban economic relations by securing buy-in for any deal from a key constituency, Bachmann said.
“He is a credible negotiator, given his background and given the constituency that he represented in Florida for many years,” Bachmann said, referring to Rubio’s history in the Senate.
“This is the moment,” Bachmann added. We “have an administration that I think will make a lasting compromise with Cuba to change policy there for the long term.”
But Bachmann offered an important caveat: “I don't know when we get to that point, given the other geopolitical issues that are taking place right now.”
