USDA’s first and only almond crop forecast for 2026 landed almost exactly in line with Blue Diamond Growers’ own estimate, pointing to a modestly smaller California crop as the industry adjusts to a new, thinner crop reporting landscape.
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service projected the California almond crop at 2.7 billion pounds, down 1% from last year, with yield unchanged at 1,940 pounds per acre, according to the Almond Board of California. The forecast is based on a survey of about 500 growers conducted from April 21 to May 6.
The estimate closely tracks Blue Diamond’s forecast of 2.69 billion pounds, within a projected range of 2.675 billion to 2.72 billion pounds. The Sacramento-based cooperative said its outlook draws on early-season observations across the Central Valley, historical data and input from nearly 3,000 grower members.
“According to the polled growers, the industry is expecting a modestly smaller crop in 2026 compared to last year,” said Almond Board President and CEO Clarice Turner in a statement. “This is an early estimate, and we will see how the crop progresses over the coming months.”
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The crop estimate comes amid a major change in almond market reporting. The Almond Board voted in December to stop funding USDA NASS’ Objective Measurement Report, while continuing the May Subjective Forecast. The board said at the time it remains committed to working with USDA and industry partners to refine crop estimation methods. USDA also changed the format of NASS publications nationally, though the Almond Board said the methodology for the subjective forecast remains unchanged and California data will remain available through national releases and Quick Stats.
Blue Diamond framed its estimate as a response to that shift, saying a scenario-based range could help growers, handlers and buyers plan ahead. “Crop estimating is never a single-number exercise — conditions can vary dramatically by region, variety and orchard management,” said Mel Machado, Blue Diamond’s chief agricultural officer.
The forecast also follows Land IQ’s initial 2026 acreage estimate, which pegged bearing almond acreage at 1,385,870 acres, down 15,227 acres from the prior year, with 47,588 acres removed. The decline marks the first drop in bearing almond acreage in 30 years.
Blue Diamond cautioned that heat, pest pressure, water availability and orchard investment decisions could still affect final receipts. The Almond Board similarly emphasized that California remains the world’s leading almond supplier despite higher costs, regulatory pressures and supply chain challenges.
