A viral dessert trend is helping California pistachios remain a bright spot in an otherwise difficult economy for permanent crops, with strong demand expected to cushion growers from a sharply smaller harvest this year.
A new Terrain report points to the global popularity of “Dubai chocolate” — a chocolate bar filled with pistachio cream, shredded pastry and tahini — as the clearest example the expanding role of pistachios as an ingredient. The product first gained traction online before spawning versions from major food and restaurant brands. Although Google searches peaked in March 2025, Terrain specialty crop analyst Matt Woolf said the broader trend has endured and should continue supporting growers.
That demand has helped the industry absorb rapid production growth. California’s 2025 crop reached nearly 1.6 billion pounds, up 484% from 2015 and above the previous record of 1.5 billion pounds in 2023. U.S. availability has climbed from 0.23 shelled pound per person in 2016 to nearly 0.70 pound today, while exports grew 223% over the decade ending in 2025, according to Terrain.
Data from the Administrative Committee for Pistachios show shipments through May totaled 908 million pounds, nearly 20% above the same period a year earlier. Export shipments rose about 25%, while domestic movement increased nearly 3%.
The expanding market has helped pistachios avoid much of the pressure confronting almonds, walnuts and winegrapes. Pistachio-bearing acreage climbed to about 488,000 acres in 2024, nearly five times the level two decades earlier and enough to surpass walnuts as California’s second-largest tree nut crop by acreage, according to USDA.
Growers, however, are preparing for a steep production decline this year. Pistachios naturally alternate between heavier and lighter bearing years, and Terrain says unusually hot early-season weather may further reduce yields, particularly south of Fresno County. Some growers estimate the crop could fall as low as 700 million pounds, potentially less than half last year’s output.
Tighter supplies elsewhere could strengthen prices. USDA projected global production would fall 8% to 1.1 million metric tons as declines in Turkey, Iran and Syria outweighed the record U.S. crop. Turkey’s output was forecast to plunge nearly 70% due to an off year as well as frost and drought.
Using operating costs of roughly $3,500 per acre and an average return of $2.50 per pound, Terrain concluded many California growers could remain profitable despite lower yields. Some operations may need crop insurance, but steady or higher prices should leave pistachios outperforming many other Central Valley crops for another year.
