Expanding broccoli production along the East Coast could help the produce industry offset drought-driven supply losses in California while reducing transportation costs and food miles, according to a new Cornell University study.
The study, published in Agribusiness, modeled how the fresh broccoli supply chain could respond when drought reduces shipments from California, the dominant supplier to Eastern markets. Researchers used California shipment and drought data from 2000 through 2019, then built a production and transportation model using 2022 data on demand, yields, acreage, production costs and freight conditions.
Under the model’s severe drought scenario, average annual California shipments were 20% below the minimal drought baseline. The most cost-effective response was to expand production across 10 states stretching from Florida to Maine, with planting and harvest windows coordinated to move north as the year progresses.
Researchers stressed that the strategy would supplement rather than replace Western production.
The shift would reduce California’s annual share of the Eastern broccoli market from about 72% to 58%, while nearly doubling the Eastern share from roughly 15% to 29%. The largest seasonal change would come in fall, when Eastern production would rise to nearly 42% of the market under the severe drought scenario.
Producing more broccoli in the East would cost more at the farm level, but the model found those increases would be more than offset by lower freight costs. Under severe drought, annual production costs rose 1.5%, while transportation costs fell nearly 13%.
Total supply chain costs declined about 1.5%, or $10 million annually, and the average distance traveled by broccoli serving Eastern markets fell nearly 20%.
The study builds on Cornell’s East Coast Broccoli Project, launched in 2010 to develop varieties suited to Eastern growing conditions and coordinate growers, packers, distributors and retailers. Cornell says the effort has helped build a $120 million regional industry.
Researchers said the model could also apply to other fresh produce supply chains concentrated in drought-prone regions, including leafy greens grown in California and Arizona. But they cautioned that the findings represent medium-term potential rather than an immediate shift.
The model does not fully account for constraints involving harvesting labor, cooling and packing capacity, or cold-chain infrastructure. It also assumes imports from Mexico and Canada remain available during California droughts and treats broccoli from each region as interchangeable.
Still, the authors argued that coordinated investment in Eastern production could spread climate risk without raising overall supply chain costs.
