Brazil has benefitted from Trump’s trade war, cementing its presence in the Chinese soybean market and exporting an estimated record of 108 million metric tons to trading partners in 2025. Brazil also extended its soybean export season into the fall, with sales trickling in through November and December, and production is set to grow this year.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s corn exports are projected to recover in 2026 from the 2024/2025 cycle, even as domestic demand for corn continues to grow, putting pressure on U.S. exporters.
After a year of intense competition in global markets, Agri-Pulse is diving into the future of U.S. and Brazilian competition. Trade editor Oliver Ward is in Brazil this week for a reporting trip in the Mato Grosso growing region that will see him visit farms, a biorefinery and key infrastructure sites.
Agri-Pulse Trade Editor Oliver Ward (Agri-Pulse Photo)Follow his trip in Daybreak this week and look out for his forthcoming reporting at Agri-Pulse.com.
Rollins: China has met 12-million-ton soybean commitment
Speaking of soybeans, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says China has bought more than 12 million tons of U.S. soy since late October to fulfill an initial purchase commitment under a recent deal.
“China has finally fulfilled their commitment, snapping up 12 BILLION metric tons of our top-notch American soybeans,” Rollins wrote in a post to X on Saturday.
As part of a handshake agreement in South Korea at the end of October, Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to buy 12 million tons in 2025, and 25 million in 2026 and 2027, the White House says.
No text of the deal has been made public, however.
“This year? They're pledging ANOTHER 25 MILLION metric tons!” Rollins continued.
USDA export reporting data, which lags real-time, shows almost 10 million tons in confirmed purchases to China, with another 3 million tons in sales to “unknown destinations.” But analysts tell Agri-Pulse a significant share are likely going China.
Take note: From January to October 2025, China bought just under 6 million tons of soybeans. Even with 12 million additional tons bought since trade relations cooled, purchases since January 2025 lag behind recent years, when China has bought more than 26 million tons annually.
Vaden: USDA plans transparency for crop reports, streamlines farm aid
USDA is implementing major changes to improve transparency in crop market reporting and to expedite assistance payments to farmers. That’s according to Agriculture Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden, this week’s guest on Agri-Pulse Open Mic with host Jeff Nalley.
Following criticism over recent crop estimates, USDA announced plans for annual public reports analyzing the accuracy of their predictions. Vaden says the department will also host panel discussions at agricultural forums where statisticians will explain their methodology and answer questions from market experts.
"USDA, at the end of the crop year, is going to issue a public report," Vaden says. He adds that the department will identify where estimates missed the mark and explain the reasons why, including potential systemic errors that need addressing.
Agriculture Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden (USDA Photo)Farm aid: The agency is also streamlining its Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. Vaden says farmers will receive pre-filled forms requiring only verification and signature at county offices. "All producers will need to do is visit their county office, confirm the information is correct and affix their signature on the bottom line," Vaden says, adding that direct deposits will follow within days.
Vaden says the payments are expected to begin flowing by the end of February, with additional funding for sugar and specialty crops to follow.
EPA plans to approve dicamba, according to report
EPA plans to re-register the controversial herbicide dicamba, according to a report in The Washington Post that cites a draft statement seen by the newspaper. The EPA document calls the pending decision “the most protective dicamba registration in agency history,” according to the report.
The herbicide, sold as Xtendimax by Bayer, Engenia by BASF and Tavium by Syngenta, was not used last year because of a 2024 court decision vacating the registrations. EPA has been considering thousands of comments on proposed new labels that include restrictions to reduce off-farm damage from spray drift and volatilization.
EPA didn’t respond to a request for comment on the report.
USDA moves screwworm fight into Texas
USDA has shifted the dispersal of sterile screwworm flies northward to include a portion of south Texas. In an announcement late Friday, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service says the new dispersal area will extend 50 miles into Texas.
Dudley Hoskins, USDA’s undersecretary of marketing and regulatory programs, says the northernmost active case of New World screwworm is still about 200 miles from the border, but the infestation continues to spread in Mexico.
Cattle inventory continues to drop
The U.S. beef herd is continuing its decline, according to USDA. The latest cattle and calves inventory report shows there were 27.6 million head of cows and calves on U.S. farms as of Jan. 1, around half a percent less than last year.
The survey found a total of 27.6 million beef cows as of Jan. 1, a 2% drop from last year. USDA estimates the calf crop at 32.9 million head, a 2% decrease.
Guatemala and US unveil trade pact
Guatemala and the U.S. have signed a trade pact to reduce trade barriers, with Guatemala agreeing to similar ag provisions as other smaller economies.
Guatemala, which imported $1.8 billion in U.S. ag products in 2024, will protect the widespread use of certain meat and cheese names targeted by geographic indicators and recognize U.S. regulatory oversight and certificates.
The deal also includes language that commits Guatemala to pursue science and risk-based sanitary and phytosanitary measures, as other trading partners have indicated.
A deal inked with El Salvador last week contained similar provisions.
Canadian court upholds plastic ban, but US produce sector remains optimistic
A Canadian appeals court is allowing Canada to proceed with a ban on single-use plastics. And that could have repercussions for U.S. ag exports that use plastic packaging.
Canada’s ruling Liberal Party wants to reach zero plastic waste by 2030. But an effort to ban single-use plastic items has been tied up in the courts after a federal judge ruled the government had overreached.
But three appeals court justices sided with the government last week and agreed that plastic is toxic to humans and restricting its use is within the federal government’s powers.
Why it matters: U.S. produce exporters have been watching the case, and Canada’s broader push to cut down on plastic waste, with interest.
Fresh berries and pre-made salads “really wouldn't exist without the type of packaging that they have,” Tracey Chow, federal government affairs director at Western Growers tells Agri-Pulse. Canada is “a key market for us that we want to have discussions with and continue on this.”
While Canadian policymakers started “from a very aggressive stance” on plastic, Chow says the produce industry has engaged “officials well enough to get them to try to look at it in a less aggressive way.”
Final Word
“The global ‘retaliation’ against American products that so many pundits predicted last April never materialized—just the opposite. Since Liberation Day, I have made historic trade deals with China, the U.K., the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and others covering a majority of all U.S. Trade. … Other countries are opening their markets to tens of billions of dollars in American agricultural exports.” – President Donald Trump in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal entitled “My Tariffs Have Brought America Back,” published Saturday.
Oliver Ward, Steve Davies, Noah Wicks, Bob Ellison, and Jeff Nalley contributed to today’s Daybreak
