China bought fewer U.S. soybeans than initially expected, according to revised Agriculture Department data on recent Chinese soybean purchases.
In a correction published Monday, USDA said a Chinese buyer canceled 100,000 tons of soybean purchases originally ordered on Nov. 3. This brings the volume of confirmed Chinese soybean purchases since presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s recent meeting to 232,000 tons.
“There is not much to cancel to begin with,” Agata Kingsbury, a commodity analyst posted on LinkedIn. Kingsbury says the cancellation casts more doubt on whether China will meet its purchase commitments under its deal with U.S.
“Or will we see the classic China two-step: cancel at the highs, then quietly buy back at the lows now that post-WASDE prices have softened?” she said, referring to USDA’s supply and demand estimate published Friday. “Time will tell.”
But, but, but: Soybean prices rose Monday on rumors that a Chinese buyer placed a new order for U.S. soybeans.
Rising prices could mean lower farm bill payments for producers
Prices for corn and soybeans have risen a bit this fall, so commodity program payments may not be quite as large as originally expected.
Based on new season-average price projections, farmers are likely to get about $11.9 billion in payments next year from the Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage programs, according to Paul Neiffer’s Farm CPA report. That’s about $2 billion lower than Neiffer’s September forecast.
The average marketing year price forecast for corn went up 10 cents a bushel since September, reducing estimated payments by $1.3 billion. The projected average soybean price went up 50 cents a bushel, lowering its estimated payments by about $1 billion. Wheat and rice price forecasts have both dropped, increasing projected payments for both by a total of about $300 billion.
Keep in mind: Payments on crops harvested this fall will go to producers next October.
EU slow-rolls implementation of US trade deal, sparking frustration
Three months after the U.S. and European Union published a joint trade framework, legislation implementing the deal is crawling through the EU legislative process.
“They're not racing through it by any manner,” Alice O’ Donovan, secretary general of the European Liaison Committee for Agricultural and Agri-food Trade tells Agri-Pulse. “I think they're biding their time a little bit.”
The European Commission, Parliament and Council of the European Union will all have to sign off on the deal’s tariff adjustments. But the European Parliament is already voicing its displeasure with the deal.
“Despite its title, the commitments resulting from the Joint Statement do not appear to be reciprocal, fair, or balanced,” according to a parliamentary report on the proposal published last month. The parliament proposed more than 30 amendments, including efforts to monitor U.S. ag export increases and safeguards to prevent a surge in imports.
Take note: U.S. officials expressed frustration with Europe’s pace of implementation in comments to the Financial Times this week. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will be in Brussels this week to meet with EU counterparts. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick heads to Brussels next week.
Chevron explains departure from clean fuels group
Chevron says it’s leaving Clean Fuels Alliance America to cut costs.
We reported yesterday that the energy giant was leaving the group that represents the biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel industries. Company spokesperson Allison Cook says the decision “was made as part of a larger, enterprise-wide cost reduction effort that included Chevron’s participation in many trade associations and other sponsorships across many lines of business.”
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Cook adds that Chevron wants to “sincerely thank the organization for its dedication and leadership role in the growth of new markets and adoption of bio-based diesel.” Chevron will “continue to stay engaged with the industry and advocate for biodiesel and renewable diesel.”
Tate Bennett (Agri-Pulse file photo)America First Policy Institute will focus on lawfare
A conservative advocacy group co-founded by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins back in 2021 launched a new project aimed at protecting farmers from what it calls government overreach.
The America First Policy Institute’s Lawfare Advisory Council will examine cases involving regulation, eminent domain and environmental requirements, AFPI says in a news release.
Earlier this year, USDA created an online web portal where farmers could file complaints. “We have real folks in government who are interested in providing relief from this long-term system of systemic lawfare against farmers and ranchers,” said Tate Bennett, AFPI Director of Rural Policy and the council’s co-chair, on a call with reporters Monday to discuss the new effort.
In addition to Bennett, council members are:
Leigh Ann O’Neill, AFPI chief legal affairs officer and council co-chair.
Brett Tolman, AFPI Chair for American Justice and former U.S. Attorney for the District of Utah.
David Bernhardt, former Secretary of the Interior.
Sarah Falen Tate, rancher and attorney specializing in agricultural and environmental law.
John Rich, country music star.
Todd Rokita, Indiana Attorney General.
Daniel Epstein, attorney specializing in administrative law and a former special adviser to President Trump.
No surprise: WOTUS proposal embraced by ag, slammed by enviros
The latest effort to come up with a definition of “waters of the U.S.” that can survive in Republican and Democratic administrations is officially underway.
Given the reactions to the EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers proposal, however, it’s more than likely it will follow the same road to the courthouse.
The American Farm Bureau Federation, say the proposal protects “critical water sources” while respecting farmers. The National Association of State Departments of Agriculture applauds the proposal for recognizing “states’ expertise in managing and protecting local land and water resources.”
Environmental groups, however, say the proposal could leave up to half of all wetlands unprotected. The proposal attempts to adhere to the Supreme Court’s 2023 Sackett decision that to be protected under federal law, so-called “adjacent wetlands” must be connected continuously to regulated surface waters.
Final word
“It is imperative that Congress weigh in as well given Congress’ constitutional authority over trade and duty to oversee executive action. The American people deserve to see where their Representatives stand.” — Sens. Rand Paul, R-Ky., Tim Kaine, D-Va., and Ron Wyden, D-Ore., in a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., today urging a vote on three bills passed by the Senate to end tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.
Philip Brasher, Oliver Ward and Noah Wicks contributed to today’s Daybreak.
