China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans are almost certain to fall short of the amount the administration initially said would be booked by the end of the year.
Following President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s October meeting in South Korea, the White House said China had committed to buying at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of the year.
On the last day of 2025, confirmed sales are short of that number.
Final sales numbers still need to be confirmed. The Agriculture Department has only published weekly export sales data until Dec. 18. But daily “flash sales” data for subsequent days – which capture sales of over 100,000 metric tons to a single destination in a single day – provide a glimpse of where things stand.
Since the week of the Trump-Xi meeting, confirmed sales to Chinese buyers stand at almost 7 million tons – more than 5 million tons short of the Dec. 31 target. There are still more than 3 million tons of outstanding soybean sales destined for “unknown destinations,” including orders for 213,000 tons in recent days.
Even if China ends up as the ultimate recipient of every one of the sales booked to unknown destinations – which is unlikely – Beijing would still fall short of the 12 million-ton commitment before the end of 2025.
What comes next?
Administration officials have already indicated that Beijing will have more time to come up with the necessary purchases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that the actual deadline for the 12 million tons is Feb. 28. Meanwhile, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told senators earlier this month that those purchases could run on to March.
Two officials told Agri-Pulse last week that they expected the bulk of the 12-million tons of sales would occur in 2025 but that delivery of those orders would occur in 2026. Both also insisted that the deadline has not changed.
As of Dec. 18, only 659,000 tons of the Chinese soybean orders had shipped, according to USDA.
How much the initial deadline matters to the industry will depend on how next year’s sales pan out.
As part of the Oct. 30 deal, Beijing also committed to buying at least 25 million tons in the 2026 calendar year, according to the White House. If it makes good on the remaining purchases from the 12 million-ton commitment and buys an additional 25 million tons in 2026, many are prepared to consider the pledge met.
A “discrepancy of a month or so” would not be of much concern if Beijing hits its other purchasing targets, Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., told Agri-Pulse earlier this month.
China’s current cadence should be sufficient to meet the 12 million-ton commitment by the end of February, as Bessent has suggested.
Chinese buyers bought more than 25 million tons in every calendar year from 2020-2024. If sales return to 2022 levels, when the U.S. sent upwards of 30 million tons of soybeans to China, Beijing would likely buy enough beans in 2026 to meet the 2025 purchase targets and fulfill the remainder of the 12 million-ton pledge.
Chinese officials, however, are trying to reduce reliance on imports, not return to 2020-2022 levels.
On Tuesday, Chinese agriculture ministry officials reiterated calls for improved self-sufficiency and higher production of grain and oilseeds at an annual rural labor conference, Reuters reported.
The U.S. industry isn’t pinning all its hopes on China either, however.
“We've seen really good results exporting soybeans to other destinations, so the U.S. is less reliant upon China,” Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, told Agri-Pulse last week.
“We want a diverse set of markets to supply, and China wants a diverse set of suppliers,” he added. Above all, he said, the U.S. industry wants good relations with Beijing to avoid further market interruptions.
For more news, go to Agri-Pulse.com.
