Lawmakers return to Washington and President Donald Trump travels to Beijing as snarled trade flows dim the outlook for worldwide energy and food supplies.
On Capitol Hill, the Senate Agriculture Committee examines elevated fertilizer prices on Tuesday, while the House is expected to vote on a bill to allow year-round sales of higher ethanol fuel blends, known as E15, as soon as Wednesday.
Agriculture policy battles over pesticide labeling, livestock conditions, hemp use, nutrition programs and more are set to resume as a House-passed farm bill moves to the Senate. There’s also the question of whether the legislation will include more economic aid for ag producers hurt by high input costs and China’s roughly five-month boycott of U.S. soybean purchases last year.
The Trump administration is under pressure to deliver solid gains for farmers from the meeting later this week in China. The talks will come on the heels of an international court ruling that a 10% global tariff on most U.S. imports is illegal. The U.S. policy setback is seen as newfound leverage for China. The Asian nation also has a competitive edge thanks to its dominance over the world’s supply of critical minerals.
Since Xi and Trump met in South Korea last October, “the center of gravity moved away from tariffs — long seen by Trump as the decisive lever — and toward something more structural: China’s control over critical minerals, rare earths, and the magnet supply chains that underpin modern military capability and advanced manufacturing,” according to analysts at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Beyond soybeans
Trump will be in Beijing Thursday and Friday, the first U.S. presidential visit in almost nine years, as the administration seeks more Chinese ag purchases.
The meeting could be the first of up to four this year, and while officials have offered few details about the scope of the discussions, top Trump trade official Jamieson Greer has indicated that agricultural trade will occupy a prominent place.
At a hearing before the House Ways and Means Committee last month, Greer – who serves as the U.S. Trade Representative – told lawmakers he is looking for commitments from Beijing that go beyond soybeans.
“There's been a lot a lot of talk about soybeans, and we have a very specific commitment on soybeans,” Greer said. “But we're also looking to get a commitment from the Chinese overall with respect to all agriculture.”
The U.S. also has been pressing Beijing for several commodity-specific policy adjustments. USTR’s Chief Agricultural Negotiator Julie Callahan says she raised trade barriers that U.S. beef and poultry producers are facing during her March visit to China.
Both industries have seen Beijing backslide on market access commitments made during the 2020 Phase One Deal inked during the first Trump administration. Beijing allowed many U.S. beef export facility registrations to expire last year, strangling U.S. exports, and hasn’t allowed poultry trade to resume from some states that have long been free of bird flu.
An industry source told Agri-Pulse in late April that the issue of state poultry export bans has been a topic of discussion in recent weeks.
A bipartisan Senate delegation that visited the country last week also pushed for a more open Chinese market for a raft of U.S. ag exports.
Former USTR Michael Froman said in a LinkedIn post Friday that he anticipates that there will be opportunities for Washington and Beijing to cut deals on specific commodities. Officials have also suggested that a new “Board of Trade” could be established to manage the U.S.-China relationship through purchase commitments and tariff reductions in non-strategic sectors.
But Froman pointed out that the days of the U.S. using leader-to-leader meetings to press China on its broader economic model are gone.
“A Board of Trade could potentially manage the bilateral trade relationship, one soybean and plane at a time. But it will do little to address China’s imbalanced economic model,” he wrote. “As such, the summit is unlikely to alter the character and course of the U.S.-China relationship long-term. It is about managing for stability, not solving outstanding concerns.”
For his part, Greer on Friday acknowledged the limitations of what the meeting could achieve.
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“There’s not really a situation where … we get China to change the way they govern, the way they manage their economy; that’s all baked into their system,” he said. “But I think there is a world where we find out where we can optimize trade between China and the U.S. to achieve more balance.”
Tariff refunds set to begin
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has indicated tariff refunds could begin this week.
In a closed-door conference last month, U.S. Customs and Border Protection told a Court of International Trade judge that the agency was eyeing this week as an approximate target date for issuing the first refunds.
As of late April, more than 75,000 businesses had applied for refunds of the emergency tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court earlier this year. The agency said more than 1.7 million tariff payments had been cleared for refunds.
The administration is expected to pay back around $166 billion to importers.
The trade court on Thursday also ruled that Trump’s 10% global tariff, which was imposed to replace some of the lost emergency tariffs, is illegal.
The ruling narrowly applied to the plaintiffs in that case, and the administration has indicated that it will appeal the decision, but the ruling potentially tees up another protracted legal fight over further tariff refunds.
Fertilizer and E15
The cost and availability of fertilizer for U.S. farmers will be scrutinized at a Senate Ag Committee hearing on Tuesday. Witnesses scheduled to testify include farmers and The Fertilizer Institute CEO Corey Rosenbusch.
The hearing comes amid calls for heightened scrutiny of the industry. Bills have been introduced in Congress to improve fertilizer price transparency. Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden last month said he’s met with officials at the Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission as part of a pricing probe of the industry.
Over in the House, lawmakers on Tuesday are scheduled to take up H.R. 2071, the Save Our Shrimpers Act, which would bar federal funds from financing foreign shrimp farming, processing or exporting through international financial firms.
The House also is expected to consider E15 measure H.R. 1346 as soon as Wednesday. The vote comes after a failed effort last month to add the ethanol-expansion provision in the farm bill. If the E15 legislation passes, it’s not clear how it would be handled in the Senate.
Here is a list of agriculture or rural-related events scheduled for this week in Washington and elsewhere (all times EST):
Monday, May 11
The National Rural Lenders Association holds its Spring Educational Conference in Memphis, Tenn., through Wednesday.
The Wheat Quality Council hosts a hard winter wheat tour, mainly in Kansas, through Thursday.
4 p.m. – USDA’s weekly crop progress report.
Tuesday, May 12
The Plant Based Products Council holds an Ag Bioeconomy Policy Summit and members meeting in Washington, through Wednesday.
9 a.m. – The Asia Society will host a virtual panel discussion on “Managed Trade 2.0: Lessons From Japan for the New U.S.-China Board of Trade.”
Noon – USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and crop production reports; and annual summary of cotton ginnings.
3 p.m. – Senate Ag Committee hearing on fertilizer supplies and costs, 106 Dirksen.
Wednesday, May 13
9:30 a.m. – U.S. Forest Service Chief Tom Schultz testifies on budget priorities at a Senate Energy Committee hearing, 366 Dirksen.
10 a.m. – Interior Secretary Doug Burgum testifies on budget priorities at a House Natural Resources Committee hearing, 1324 Longworth.
10:30 a.m. – FDA Commissioner Martin Makary testifies on budget priorities at a Senate Appropriations panel hearing, 138 Dirksen.
10:30 a.m. – EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin testifies on budget priorities at a Senate Appropriations panel hearing, 124 Dirksen.
3 p.m. – The USDA and Statistics Canada release an annual report on flour milling production data for both countries.
Thursday, May 14
President Trump meets with Chinese President Xi in Beijing.
8:30 a.m. – USDA weekly export sales.
4 p.m. – The Atlantic Council hosts an event on “Trade over aid: Prosperity for the US and the developing world.”
Friday, May 15
President Trump meets with Chinese President Xi in Beijing.
9 a.m. – A House Appropriations panel considers 2027 funding legislation for energy, water development and related agencies, H-140 Capitol.
11 a.m. – The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts a live episode of its State of Play series on “What did the Trump-Xi Summit Achieve?”
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