Trade policy will be front and center this week even as the partial government shutdown drags into another week with no end in sight. Senate Democrats are likely to force another vote on President Donald Trump’s tariff policy even as his administration continues discussions with China.
Also this week, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is expected to be grilled about Trump’s trade policy during a hearing Tuesday before a Senate Appropriations subcommittee.
The government shutdown hits day 20 on Monday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., will be forcing Democrats to vote again on a House-passed stopgap spending bill to reopen the government.
He continues to rule out Democratic demands for an extension of expiring health insurance subsidies, but Thune is bringing up a bill that would pay federal employees who have continued working during the shutdown.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., continues to keep the House out of session while the shutdown is ongoing. The House last held votes on Sept. 19, when Republicans pushed through the continuing resolution that has stalled in the Senate.
Senate Ag and Grain Standards Reauthorization Act
The Senate Ag Committee on Tuesday will take up a House-passed bipartisan bill to reauthorize the Grain Standards Act, although Senate Ag Committee Chair John Boozman, R-Ark., intends to amend it slightly.
Boozman’s amendment would require the Agriculture Department to prioritize adoption of new grain grading technologies, as well as publish an analysis of deficiencies in the current technology evaluation process.
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The committee will also consider the Fix our Forests Act, which aims to speed up environmental reviews for forest management and wildfire treatment projects, as well as a slate of smaller land and mineral conveyance bills.
China talks continue as tariff threat looms
Trump seemed to acknowledge last week that his threat of additional 100% tariffs on China would create fresh havoc in U.S. supply chains and said he still plans to meet with his Chinese counterpart – despite previously suggesting the meeting could be scrapped.
In an interview with Fox News on Friday, Trump said that the 100% duties slated to kick in Nov. 1 are “not sustainable.”
The president is still signaling that he will follow through with the threat, however. Later in the day, Trump told reporters in the White House that the duties could still come into effect – and may do so ahead of the original Nov. 1 deadline.
On the Chinese side, Beijing continues to push back against U.S. characterizations of its expanded export controls on rare earths and blame U.S. actions for the recent escalations. A Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson this week told reporters that since senior officials from both countries met in Madrid, the U.S. has expanded trade restrictions on Chinese companies.
The stakes couldn’t be higher for U.S. producers of soybeans and other commodities. China has still not bought any of the new soybean crop, and sorghum, cotton, beef and pork are lagging previous years’.
Some analysts are warning that, if the political will exists, China has sufficient soybean stocks to tide itself over until the next Brazilian crop, and, absent a political settlement, could avoid purchasing U.S. soybeans for several months to come.
Accordingly, Trump’s indication that a meeting with President Xi Jinping at the end of the month remains on track will be welcome news for those hoping for a defusing of trade tensions.
This week promises more twists and turns as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will head to Malaysia to meet his Chinese counterpart for further talks. The pair spoke via phone on Friday evening, according to Chinese press reports.
Asked on Friday whether he thought the 100% duties would end up coming into force, top Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro was evasive.
“Let's just see what happens,” he said. “If we learned anything from the first term, it’s that these are difficult negotiations.”
U.S. and Brazilian trade officials also met last week in what the Brazilian side called a “promising start” to negotiations. Many imports from Brazil face at least 50% tariffs; Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spoke via phone earlier this month and agreed to a future in-person meeting.
Senators may have another chance to show where they stand on the president’s tariff agenda this week.
Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine told Agri-Pulse that votes on both the Brazil and Canadian tariffs on the Senate floor are likely this week. With more farm-state Republicans privately raising concerns about U.S. tariffs on ag inputs, and tariffs beginning to bite, Kaine is hoping for more Republican dissenters.
Four is the number to beat. Last time the Senate voted on the Canadian tariffs, both Kentucky Sens. Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell, as well as Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski and Maine’s Susan Collins crossed the aisle to vote with Democrats.
Also this week, Agri-Pulse will host a forum Tuesday afternoon, U.S. Agriculture and Food Systems on the Global Stage,” that will look ahead to the COP30 climate conference next month in Brazil by bringing together farmers, policymakers, and private-sector leaders to discuss advancements in U.S. agricultural innovation.
Here is a list of agriculture or rural-related events scheduled for this week in Washington and elsewhere (all times EDT):
Monday, Oct. 20
U.S. Grains and Bioproducts Council hosts Global Ethanol Summit, Capital Hilton.
Tuesday, Oct. 21
World Food Prize Foundation Borlaug Dialogue through Thursday, Des Moines.
FIRA USA through Thursday, Sacramento.
9:15 a.m. – Senate Agriculture Committee meeting to consider the Grain Standards Reauthorization Act and other bills, 329A Russell.
9:30 a.m. – International Food Policy Research Institute webinar, “Navigating the Food Security Nexus: Commodity Prices, Inflation and Exchange Rates.”
10 a.m. – Senate Commerce-Justice-Science Appropriations Subcommittee hearing with U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer, 138 Dirksen.
1:45 p.m. – The Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy event, “Shaping the Future of Food: Solutions from Saint Paul to Sri Lanka.”
2 p.m. – Agri-Pulse forum: “U.S. Agriculture and Food Systems on the Global Stage,” National Press Club.
Wednesday, Oct. 22
Thursday, Oct. 23
Friday, Oct. 24
8:30 a.m. – Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Consumer Price Index for September.
For more news, go to Agri-Pulse.com.
