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As farmers and ranchers prepare to head to the polls next week, their overall approval of President Donald Trump remains high, but they want the administration to focus more on exports and ending the trade war with China. “Selling more U.S. farm products overseas” and “protecting the country against terrorism” are two of the highest-rated issues.

That’s according to a new nationwide Agri-Pulse poll of 600 farmers and ranchers, conducted by Aimpoint Research from Oct. 12-28. Respondents were representative of commercial farmers with gross farm incomes of at least $50,000. Farm size was evenly distributed; about 28 percent farm 500 acres or less, 23 percent till between 500 and 1,000 acres, 20 percent have 1,000 to 2,000 acres, and 28 percent farm more than 2,000 acres.

About 79 percent of the farmers polled either approve or strongly approve of President Trump, compared to 19 percent who disapprove.

Broken down by party, 92 percent of the GOP farmers approved of the way Trump is handling the nation’s top job, compared to 33 percent of the Democrats and 65 percent of the independents.

Some 67 percent of the Democratic farmers polled – who represented about 12 percent of the total respondents – disapprove of Trump’s performance.

Whether or not the president can transfer his high approval rating on the farm to congressional candidates during next week’s midterm elections remains to be seen. Farm country has voted overwhelmingly for Republican presidential candidates in recent years. Eighty percent of the farmers in our sample voted for Trump in 2016, versus only 10 percent who voted for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

When it comes to his own re-election prospects, 70 percent said they would vote for Trump in 2020, 19 percent said they would vote against Trump, and 10 percent were undecided. Support for Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue remains strong, too, with 73 percent of the farmers polled approving of how he’s handled his first year.

Much of Trump’s strong standing in rural America could hinge on whether more trade deals are completed, tariffs are lifted on agriculture’s biggest trading partners and commodity prices improve. For now, the majority of farmers said financial conditions were at least the same or better than a year ago, with about one-third saying conditions were worse. But 60 percent also have some concerns with their ability to repay operating and ownership loans at year-end. 

Little wonder then, that there was strong support (77 percent) for the administration’s trade assistance package. The first half included $6.3 billion in assistance to farmers and commodity purchases. Perdue said USDA will release funds in December for the second part of the department’s aid package, but he also reiterated that there won’t be payments in 2019.

Farmers watched commodity prices reach historic highs within the last decade and, in many cases spending on new machinery, inputs and cash rent skyrocketed, too (see Farm Doc Daily charts). Now, with tariffs making U.S. commodities more expensive in major world markets, prices have dropped, and many farmers find it difficult to break even.

On the campaign trail, President Trump repeatedly says that farm prices were bad for 15 years or so before he was elected, ignoring USDA NASS data that proves otherwise.

But even though conditions on the farm might not be perceived as favorable right now, farmers seem optimistic that things will get better under Trump. The farmers in the survey sample gave fairly high marks to the administration’s efforts to renegotiate and rename the North American Free Trade Agreement, to renegotiate trade terms with China, and to repeal federal regulations on their farms.

And when it comes to passing a new farm bill, they see the need to get it done before the end of 2018. On a scale of 0-10, with 10 being extremely important, 79 percent rated the importance of farm bill passage with a 6 or above.

In general, it appears that farmers and ranchers are not convinced the Democratic party is on their side when it comes to agricultural issues – even though “making health care more affordable,” a key campaign topic for Democrats, scored well. When asked which political party relates to you and your farming interests, 65 percent said it was the GOP compared to only 9 percent who selected Democrats. But there may be some growing distaste for both parties. About 18 percent said, “none of the above” and another 6 percent endorsed independents.

To view our interview with President Donald Trump, click here.

For more news go to: www.Agri-Pulse.com

 

The farm policy landscape could change dramatically a week from now.  

In next Tuesday’s elections, control of the House and Senate is at stake as well as a variety of state offices that are important to agriculture policy. The battle for control of Congress will go a long way toward determining the success of the Trump administration heading into the 2020 presidential election. 

The next farm bill also could be affected by the election outcome should negotiators be unable to reach agreement on a bill by the end of the year. 

Meanwhile, governors and state agriculture commissioners could have an impact on everything from tax policy to state efforts to address water quality and other challenges. 

Here is a look at the key national and state races: 

Unseating farm-state Democrats could save GOP hold on Senate

As much as Republicans would like to maintain control of the House, holding onto the Senate is even more critical from the standpoint of confirming nominees to the courts and cabinet positions.

Heading into the final week of the campaign, Republicans appear to have a realistic shot at even expanding their GOP majority in the Senate by unseating Democratic incumbents in at least three major agricultural states that Trump carried in 2016: Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota.

Republicans currently hold 51 seats. If they can avoid losing GOP seats in Arizona and Nevada and flip the three Democratic seats, they could increase their majority to 54-46, providing some breathing room in nomination battles over the next two years. The Republicans also are holding out hopes of unseating Democrats in Montana and Florida.

Democrats in Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota are hoping attacks on Trump’s trade policy will neutralize any damage from their votes against Brett Kavanaugh for a seat on the Supreme Court. But Trump’s trade deal with Mexico and Canada and his plan to allow year-round sale of E15 may soothe the anxiety that rural voters feel about the ongoing trade war with China.

Trump, who went to Indianapolis for the FFA convention on Saturday, is expected to make two trips to Indiana and another two to Missouri ahead of the election to give a boost to the Republicans challenging Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., and Claire McCaskill, D-Mo.

In North Dakota, polls show Sen. Heidi Heitkamp falling well behind GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer in the aftermath of the Kavanaugh battle, but Heitkamp has kept up her nearly singular focus on trade policy. “He is all in on the president, and I’m all in on North Dakota,” Heitkamp said in their last debate.

Heitkamp also has criticized Cramer for supporting the House-passed farm bill, citing a provision allowing some farmers to revise their yield data for the Price Loss Coverage program. The provision would primarily benefit growers in southern Plains states.

But Trump remains relatively popular in North Dakota compared to many other areas of the country. In September, 52 percent of North Dakota voters approved of Trump, according to a Morning Consult poll.

Trump’s approval numbers in Indiana and Missouri were similar in September, which was before the Kavanaugh vote, but Donnelly and McCaskill are running neck and neck with their challengers, Indiana businessman Mike Braun and Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley.

In Indiana, Donnelly would probably be in good shape if not for his vote against Kavanaugh, said Don Villwock, a former Indiana Farm Bureau president.

During a debate in October, Donnelly defended his support for farmers and said Braun wouldn't stand up to Trump when he was wrong. Braun said Donnelly has been ineffective in Congress because he “never sticks his neck out."

In Missouri, McCaskill has been trying to tie her challenger to Trump’s trade war with China and its impact on soybean growers. "These tariffs have killed commodity prices. There's not a bean farmer in Missouri that's going to come out even this year," McCaskill said in a debate earlier this month with Hawley.

But Hawley won the support of the Missouri Farm Bureau, in part because of his litigation challenging the Obama-era “waters of the U.S.” (WOTUS) rule and California’s animal welfare standards.

Trump has also gone after Montana Sen. Jon Tester and may make a fourth trip to the state on Saturday on behalf of Republican state Auditor Matt Rosendale. Analysts are sharply divided over the race, with the Cook Political Report calling it a “tossup,” but others rating the contest as “lean” to “likely” Democrat.

A Gravis Marketing poll conducted last week had Tester up by three points, 48 percent to 45 percent. Separate polls done earlier in October by the University of Montana and Montana State University showed Tester comfortably ahead.

Farm districts figure in battle for House control

The battle for control of the House isn’t just being fought on the coasts or in the suburbs, although those are the areas where Democrats stand to make the biggest gains. As many as a dozen agricultural districts could be pivotal as well.

Here is a look at some of the key races, state by state:

California

Of the GOP-held seats, none is in more danger than House Agriculture Committee member Jeff Denham’s in the 10th District, which includes Modesto. Hillary Clinton carried the district by three percentage points in 2016, and analysts rate Denham’s race against venture capitalist Josh Harder as a toss-up. 

In the 21st District, which sprawls across several counties south of Fresno, GOP Rep. David Valadao, a member of the House Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee, appears to be in better shape against Democratic engineer and businessman T.J. Cox, even though Clinton carried the district by 15.5 points.

During their only debate, Cox slammed Valadao for failing to pass an immigration reform bill that he had co-authored earlier this year with Denham, or to get meaningful assistance from the Trump administration for the region’s water problems.

Illinois

Two House Agriculture Committee members are struggling to hang on to their seats: Rodney Davis, who chairs the biotechnology, horticulture and research subcommittee, and Mike Bost. The two Republicans are favorites to win but the close races are indicative of how GOP troubles aren’t limited to the suburbs. Davis’ and Bost’s Democratic challengers are pushing them hard on health care policy.

Trump carried Davis’ 13th District, which includes Decatur, Springfield and Champaign in central Illinois, by 5.5 points. A Siena College-New York Times poll conducted Oct. 21-25 had Davis up 46 percent to 41 percent over Democrat Betsy Londrigan.

Bost appears to be in better shape in the more conservative 12th District, which runs along the Mississippi River south of St. Louis. Trump carried the district by nearly 15 points in 2016, and a Siena College-NYT poll done Oct. 18-22 had him up 48 percent to 39 percent over Brendan Kelly, a county state’s attorney.

Iowa

Although Trump carried Iowa relatively easily in 2016, Republicans are in danger of losing at least two of the three House seats they hold. Analysts have all but given Rod Blum’s 1st District seat in northeast Iowa to Abby Finkenauer, a state legislator from Dubuque.

In the 3rd District, which includes metropolitan Des Moines, House Ag Appropriations member David Young is in a close race with Cindy Axne, a technology consultant from West Des Moines. Recent polls show Axne narrowly ahead.

National Republicans have trained their support on Young, and Trump went to Council Bluffs earlier in October for a rally with him.

Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said Tuesday he thinks Blum and Young could both win their races because of the extent to which the battle over Kavanaugh's nomination has energized GOP voters.

Democrats would dearly love to knock off firebrand Republican Steve King in the 4th District, which sprawls across northwest and north-central Iowa, some of the world’s most productive farmland. A Change Research poll released Tuesday put King, a senior House Ag Committee member, up by just one point over Democrat J.D. Scholten, and the Cook Political Report has downgraded the race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican."

Dairy processing giant Land O’Lakes announced this week that it was ending its contributions to King over comments he's made about race and white nationalism.

Minnesota

Minnesota’s 1st District, which stretches across the state’s southernmost counties, represents one of the few opportunities for the GOP to flip a Democratic House seat this year.

House Ag member Tim Walz is vacating the seat, one of the nation’s largest ag districts by market value, to run for governor. But Republican Jim Hagedorn, a former Treasury Department official who grew up on a farm near Truman and narrowly lost to Walz in 2016, is struggling to beat Iraq War veteran and former Obama administration official Dan Feehan.

Analysts rate the race as a tossup. A Survey USA poll earlier in October had Feehan up 47 percent to 45 percent.

Republicans have a much better shot at flipping the 8th District seat in northwest Minnesota being vacated by House Ag Democrat Rick Nolan. A Siena College-NYT poll in October put Republican Pete Stauber up over Democrat Joe Radinovich 49 percent to 34 percent.

Kansas

Republican engineer and Army veteran Steve Watkins is running against former Kansas House Democratic Leader Paul Davis for the 2nd District seat being vacated by retiring GOP House Ways and Means Committee member Lynn Jenkins. Trump carried the district, which includes Topeka and Lawrence, by more than 18 points, but analysts rate the race as a tossup or narrowly favoring the Democrat. Recent polls have varied widely.

Over in the Kansas City suburbs, House Ag Appropriations member and Republican Kevin Yoder is in danger of losing his seat in the 3rd District, which Hillary Clinton narrowly won in 2016. Polls show Democratic lawyer Sharice Davids well ahead in the race.

New York

In the Hudson Valley’s 19th District, House Agriculture Committee Republican John Faso may be losing ground against Democratic lawyer Antonio Delgado. Trump carried Faso’s district by 6.8 points but a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday showed Delgado up 49 percent to 44 percent.

Democrats have tried to make an issue of Faso’s support for the House-passed farm bill.

Washington

Trump carried eastern Washington’s wheat-growing 5th District by more than 13 points, but House GOP Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers is trying to fight off a challenge from Democrat Lisa Brown, an economist.

Analysts rate the race as “lean” to “likely” Republican, although there has been little polling data released. A Democratic poll in September had Rodgers up by three points.

Republican incumbents facing challenging gubernatorial races

A little further down the ballot, a number of state races could prove to be an indicator of what’s to come for the Trump administration and the broader U.S. political climate.

Races for the governor’s mansions are dead heats in a number of ag states, and ag secretary and attorney general spots are also up for grabs.

Leading the way in races to watch is Iowa, where Kim Reynolds, who has been serving as governor after Terry Branstad’s appointment to be ambassador to China, seeks to be elected for the first time. But she’s in a tight race with Fred Hubbell, a former business executive and economic development director in the state.

Elsewhere in the Midwest, Illinois could flip back to Democratic control as Republican incumbent Governor Bruce Rauner faces a tough reelection bid against JB Pritzker. Wisconsin Governor (and former Republican presidential candidate) Scott Walker finds himself in a tossup race against Democrat Tony Evers.  

A number of House members are also running for to be governors: House Ag Committee Democrats Tim Walz of Minnesota and Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico both appear poised to win their races. South Dakota’s Kristi Noem, however, is in a tight race against Democrat Billy Sutton, a state legislator paralyzed in a rodeo accident a decade ago.

A number of ag secretary races may also be worthy of attention. In Iowa, Mike Naig seeks to be elected to the office he’s held since appointed to fill the vacancy left by Bill Northey joining the Department of Agriculture. He’s running against Tim Gannon, who worked at USDA while former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack served as ag secretary. Alabama and Florida are both open races, and Sid Miller’s bid for another term as the Texas Ag Commissioner will likely be successful, despite the lack of endorsements from many of the state’s top farm groups.

There are also 30 races for attorney general positions across the country, spots that might not have as direct an impact on farm policy but could have an outsized impact on the Trump administration’s regulatory approach going forward. Former Oklahoma Attorney General – and eventual EPA Administrator – Scott Pruitt was known for many lawsuits filed against the Obama administration. Scott Will, executive director of the Republican Attorneys General Association, said those efforts were frequently bipartisan, and he’s concerned “hyper-activist Democrats … tripping over themselves to sue the president” might get aggressive in a partisan fashion.

Officials watching attorneys general races across the country from both sides of the aisle said Wisconsin and Ohio are presenting competitive races, and Michigan might be one to watch as well. The current 50-state A-G party breakdown is 27 Republicans, 22 Democrats, and one Independent, a number sure to shift after election day.

For more news, go to www.Agri-Pulse.com

The soybean market in the coming weeks will be focused on China and how it handles its massive demand for the oilseed while at the same time avoiding U.S. supplies facing a 25 percent tariff in the ongoing trade war with the Trump administration.

Brazil, which began this year’s harvest way back in January, is sending soybeans to China at a brisk pace but can’t keep shipping at significant volumes much longer. Neither can Argentina, which has actually been importing from the U.S. this year to keep its crushers operating, say market watchers and economists.

Soon, said American Farm Bureau Federation Chief Economist John Newton, “we’ll be the only game in town” to supply soybeans.

For now, though, five ships in Argentine ports are loading up with about 210,000 metric tons of soybeans to ship to China, according to John Baize, president of John C. Baize and Associates and a consultant for the U.S. Soybean Export Council. Further north, a dozen ships in Brazilian ports are loading about 705,000 tons destined for Chinese buyers.

“They’re still loading soybeans like crazy,” said Baize about Brazil, “but they’re not going to be able to do it for much longer. It’s November, December and January that’s the problem for China.”

Brazil’s next harvest does not start to come in until January. The country’s farmers have boosted planting in the expectation of capitalizing again on China’s massive needs and the trade war that is causing the country to shun U.S. supplies, but it won’t be until sometime in February that the new Brazilian crop can reach Chinese livestock operations.

The U.S. has a lot of soybeans on hand as a large harvest comes in, but the Chinese 25 percent tariff – a major part of the tariffs imposed in response to the Trump administration action to punish China for appropriating U.S. intellectual property – has virtually halted Chinese imports.

Only three cargoes of U.S. soybeans, totaling about 202,000 tons, have been dispatched to China this marketing year, which began Sept. 1. Last year at this time that total was 6.4 million tons, said Baize.

U.S. government officials say they hope the Chinese will be forced to begin buying more U.S. soybeans in the coming weeks as South American supplies drastically diminish, but there are other options for China.

USDA’s latest monthly supply and demand report shows China has 825 million bushels in beginning stocks that it can draw down on. That’s a massive stockpile, but Baize stressed that China will likely be reticent to draw down on it because of its strategic value and the fact that it won’t be easily built back up any time soon.

Still, China may feel it needs to dig into the reserves, said Newton.

“It remains to be seen what they ultimately do, but they do have inventory,” he said. “That’s what inventory is there for, but if the inventory runs low, then you could run into some concerns.”

One of those concerns is that the trade war drags on longer than expected and those emergency supplies are drastically reduced or used up.

And no one really knows exactly how big China’s stocks are, despite the USDA estimate. That data is a state secret and the amount could be a lot more than 825 million bushels or a lot less, said Newton.

If China won’t or can’t draw on stockpiles, Newton said, there’s always arbitrage.

“If Malaysia buys U.S. soybeans and can deliver them to China at less than a 25 percent overhead, then there’s arbitrage opportunities there,” said Newton. “Because our soybeans are at such a sharp discount to Brazil, I’m sure there are (traders) that look at it as an opportunity to buy a fungible product like soybeans and turn around and sell it again at a price at or below what Brazil could deliver into China.”

There will likely be less of that activity if China decides to rely heavy on its stocks, but Baize said he’s doubtful.

“I think they’d just as soon starve their pigs,” he said.

For more news, go to: www.Agri-Pulse.com

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (formerly the Trans-Pacific Partnership) is now slated to go into effect on December 30 - opening new markets for U.S. competitors after the U.S. stepped away from the multilateral trade pact two years ago.

Overnight, Australia became the sixth country to ratify the agreement. Canada – the fifth - rushed through the process, expediting its way through much of the red tape, and announced its ratification on Monday. The first four to ratify were Japan, Mexico, New Zealand and Singapore. Six of the 11 member-countries needed to ratify the CPTPP by Nov. 1 for the new agreement to kick in.

“Australian farmers and businesses will particularly benefit from new high-quality free trade agreements with Canada and Mexico, our first ever with these two of the world’s top 20 economies,” said Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison in a statement. “For example, the Agreement will provide new access to the Canadian market for our grains, sugar and beef exporters. It will open up the growing Mexican market for our pork, wheat, sugar, barley and horticulture producers.

Morrison also said the TPP-11 would improve Australia’s “market access into Japan for our beef, wheat, barley and dairy exporters beyond the bilateral Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement.”

Canadian trade and farm officials also hailed the new pact.

“Canada is a trading nation,” said Jim Carr, the country’s minister of international trade diversification. “The CPTPP will add nearly half a billion consumers to the growing list of places where Canadian businesses can compete and succeed on a level playing field.”

Canadian ranchers, beef packers and exporters stand to be some of the biggest beneficiaries under the deal, just as their U.S. counterparts would have been had President Donald Trump not pulled the U.S. out of the accord in January 2017. Back then it was set to be a 12-country pact with a shorter acronym (TPP).

“This Agreement is a game-changer for the Canadian beef industry,” said Canadian Cattlemen’s Association (CCA) President David Haywood-Farmer. “I’d like to thank the government of Canada for securing our seat at the table, and we encourage at least one other CPTPP member country to speed through its domestic ratification processes and take the sixth spot, so we can get this CPTPP moving and benefit from the initial round of tariff cuts.”

All the CPTPP members agreed to cut tariffs, but Japan’s concessions on beef imports are the biggest win for Canadian ranchers. Japan agreed to immediately cut its 38.5 percent tariff on Canadian beef to 27.5 for fresh beef and 26.9 percent for frozen beef. Those tariffs would gradually drop to just 9 percent. Japan also agreed to remove the threat of a safeguard tariff of 50 percent on frozen beef.

That safeguard has already hit the U.S., Canadian and New Zealand beef sectors hard when it was triggered in August of 2017 by an influx of imports and stayed in place until April this year. Japan raised its tariff on frozen product from 38.5 percent to 50 percent. Australia was not impacted because the country already has a free trade agreement in place with Japan and is exempt.

As soon as the CPTPP goes into place, Canada and New Zealand will also be exempt.

“Our position remained steadfast through two federal governments, two iterations of the agreement itself, and five CCA presidents,” Haywood-Farmer said. “That history should tell you how strongly CCA feels about the potential of the market diversification and lower Japanese tariff for Canadian beef producers under the CPTPP.”

The U.S. also wants to be exempt and see Japan lower its tariffs on U.S. beef, and that could still happen, although ranchers here will have to wait a lot longer for the opportunity.

For months the Trump administration asked Japan to enter into a bilateral free trade agreement and on Sept. 26, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed. On Oct. 16, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative told Congress that it intends to begin negotiating an FTA with Japan, as well as the European Union and the U.K.

Under TPP, the U.S. would have gotten roughly the same deal as Canada when it comes to beef access. Under the proposed bilateral FTA, it’s unclear what Japan will be willing to concede. In the September announcement, Japan suggested it would not be willing to give more access to U.S. farm goods than it did in the TPP.

Sara Wyant contributed to this story.

For more news go to: www.Agri-Pulse.com

The rapid spread of African swine fever in China – home of half the world’s pigs – and outbreaks in Europe are unsettling global pork markets and potentially providing opportunities for major pork producers like the U.S., which has never had an outbreak of the deadly hog disease.

Those are key takeaways from Rabobank’s fourth-quarter report on the market, which argues the difficulty in controlling the spread of the disease is likely to drive dislocations in supply, “with potential for sizable shifts in trade flows in the months ahead.”

“The entire industry is reassessing its vulnerabilities, while evaluating how best to capitalize on regional trade disruptions,” according to the report, whose principal author is Christine McCracken, Rabobank’s senior analyst for animal protein.

China first detected the highly contagious animal disease in early August. Since then it has reported more than 40 outbreaks across 13 provinces. ASF is a severe viral disease, usually fatal, affecting domestic and wild pigs. It can be spread by those animals, alive or dead, or in hog waste and pork products. There is no vaccine for the virus, which does not affect humans.

The Rabobank report notes no cases of ASF have been detected in North America – where U.S. hog production in the second half of 2018 is expected to be 4 percent higher than year-ago levels – and where the industry is focused on the potential upside of trade gains.

“The U.S. has plenty of pork,” McCracken told Agri-Pulse in an interview. “But the big question is, are we going to be able to move it” in the face of unknowns like the true severity of the outbreaks in China and the future of diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing, which have gotten noticeably chilly in the past year.

Erin Borror, an economist with the U.S. Meat Export Federation, agrees that the U.S. is “well-positioned” in most international markers, though she says the total tariff U.S. pork exporters face in moving goods to China is 62 percent, which she calls “a notable obstacle.” And Borror says it’s too soon to know whether ASF will have a significant impact on Chinese pork supplies.

Michael Nepveux, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, says China has not been forthcoming with estimates on how badly its pork industry has been hurt by the spread of the disease. He says there have been estimates that as much as 25 percent of the hog herd will die or be destroyed.

“That’s definitely on the way-high end,” Nepveux says. “But if 15 percent goes, China is still going to be needing protein and I can’t see how U.S. producers wouldn’t benefit.” Even if China turns to other pork suppliers such as Brazil and Canada, the U.S. may be called upon to “backfill” those countries’ supplies, he said.

Rabobank’s McCracken says we may soon find out how desperate China is for pork. The Chinese New Year is coming up in early February and pork is an important part of celebratory meals.

“Will China’s need for pork reach the ‘crisis' stage?” McCracken asked. “Hard to tell. China has a big reserve – no one knows how big – and no one knows if it will be tapped to meet demand, and if so, how much.”

McCracken is not optimistic that China will be able to eradicate the disease, which she predicts will soon spread to most of Asia. “Vietnam may be next,” she says. Last year, the country was the world’s sixth biggest pork producer, according to the Pork Checkoff.

(Correction: The U.S. Meat Export Federation economist quoted above is Erin Borror, not Eric)

For more news, go to: www.Agri-Pulse.com

Farmers in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) are concerned they will have to develop nutrient management plans and restrict fertilizer applications if a state panel agrees with Gov. John Kasich that watersheds in that area of the state are “in distress.”

The Ohio Soil and Water Conservation Commission (OSWCC) will meet Thursday to consider a report from a commission task force on the issue, which is so controversial it resulted in the dismissal of the director of the Ohio Department of Agriculture earlier this month.

Dave Daniels said he was called into Kasich's office Oct. 19 and told his services were no longer needed. Though not told specifically why he was let go, Daniels cited newspaper accounts that reported he had not been pushing hard enough to address the impact of nutrient runoff – particularly phosphorus – that has contributed to algal blooms in Lake Erie.

Kasich, however, told the Columbus Dispatch, “I feel very strongly about the lake and as we get into transition (to the next governor), I want to make sure I had somebody there who is fully on-board with that. Sometimes, change is necessary.”

Kasich signed an executive order in July directing the OSWCC to examine whether to designate eight watersheds in the WLEB as distressed. If the commission says yes, then the departments of Agriculture and Natural Resources, as well as the Ohio EPA, would develop a “rules package that establishes nutrient management requirements for all agricultural nutrient sources” and require WLEB farmers prepare nutrient management plans (NMPs).

But the NMP requirement would be difficult to implement, Daniels said. “I have always had the opinion that while NMPs are an excellent tool and people should have them, there’s not enough technical expertise in the field” to prepare so many NMPs in a short time, Daniels told Agri-Pulse. Nor, he said, is there enough funding to cover the preparation of NMPs for 7,000 farmers covering 2 million acres.

When Kasich signed his order, Daniels estimated that the new requirements could be in place by the 2020 crop season, but that target may be difficult to meet given the size and complexity of the issue.

Joe Cornely, spokesman for the Ohio Farm Bureau Federation (OFBF), said Kasich did not tell his organization about the plans and has not communicated adequately with the agricultural community in the state.

“The legislature says this is the wrong way to do things, farm groups say this is the wrong way,” Cornely said.

The Ohio Farm Bureau does not believe the watersheds qualify as distressed, but if they are so designated, OFBF is not sure what types of rules will be put in place to restrict manure applications.

Cornely points out there already are manure restrictions in effect in the WLEB that prohibit application depending on certain conditions. Farmers cannot apply manure on frozen or snow-covered ground, or when the top two inches of the soil are saturated. In addition, application is prohibited if the weather report calls for a better than 50 percent chance of a half inch of rain within 24 hours.

Other rules are in place in the Grand Lake St. Marys watershed just south of the WLEB that prohibit manure application from Dec. 15-March 1 each year.

“Now we’re looking at a potential third new set of rules,” Cornely said.

He said he doesn’t know how the OSWCC will vote on the governor’s “distressed” request. The commission could vote to approve the designation, reject it, or decide the issue needs more study.

“Commission members are being lobbied pretty hard on both sides,” Daniels said.

Two other high-ranking Ohio Department of Agriculture staffers turned in their resignations after Daniels was fired: Deputy Director Janelle Mead, and Chief Legal Counsel Dustin Calhoun.

“They did a wonderful job; they were great employees, did everything they were asked to do,” Daniels said.

For more news, go to www.Agri-Pulse.com

When news hit that the dairy farm owned by the family of U.S. Rep. Devin Nunes, a Republican who serves California’s 22 District, moved from California to northwest Iowa, some wondered if Iowa would be the next magnet for dairy producers leaving West Coast states for greener fields.

While it’s true that Iowa’s dairy industry has seen gains over the past five years, it appears South Dakota’s growth could be spilling into the Hawkeye state. South Dakota, which is actively trying to lure new dairies, is one of the fastest growing dairy states in the country. According to Marv Post, president of South Dakota Dairy Producers and chair of the American Dairy Association for South Dakota, the growth occurring in northwest Iowa is likely due to some dairies finding it quicker to get a permit to build across the border.

Most of the growth in South Dakota — and Iowa, for that matter — has occurred along the I-29 corridor, which runs north-south through both states, about 10-30 miles from the Minnesota border.

About a decade ago, industry consolidation in South Dakota sent dairy cow numbers to a low of about 80,000 head, but today, the state’s milk cow numbers have rebounded to 120,000 cows, according to USDA data.

“We have been growing at about 6-7 percent a year, and we are looking at even stronger growth going forward,” Post notes. Initially new entrants from Canada and Europe spurred the state’s growth, but today South Dakota is seeing an influx of producers from other states.

“California dairy producers are coming in and we are seeing some interest from Minnesota,” Post says. “Some California producers are building multiple sites.” Over the last six or seven years, Post estimates that producers moving into South Dakota from California represent an additional 30,000 to 35,000 cows.

This growth “can create problems because some of the smaller dairies are going out of business due to low milk prices, and some are pretty angry about it,” says Post, who milks 70 cows, well below South Dakota’s average herd size of more than 500 cows. “But as a small dairy producer, I need the large producers to sustain the state’s infrastructure.”

Dairy farm numbers are decreasing throughout the country, but in some states, like South Dakota and Iowa, cow numbers are holding steady or rising. For instance, California dairy farm numbers have dropped 13 percent from 1,605 in 2013 to 1,390 in 2018, and cow numbers have also declined, dropping more than 5 percent to 1.739 million from January 2013 to January 2018. Over the same period, the number of dairy farms in South Dakota declined by 31 percent, from 325 in 2013 to 225 in 2018, but cow numbers increased by nearly 50 percent.

Sara Dorland, economist with the Daily Dairy Report, says that producers who want to expand into other states look for several conditions, including low input costs, good labor and land availability, manageable environmental regulations, and the potential for future expansion, including a healthy processing sector.

“Most likely, some California dairy producers — as well as producers from a few other states —  will continue to look to other states to expand production,” says Dorland. “These farms have the expertise and the capital to invest. Looking at California, there is a higher and better use for the land that can generate a better return than dairying. These farms likely still see the benefit and return from dairy farming, just not in the Golden State.”

Changes in cow numbers in some of the other states drawing out-of-state dairies are not as startling as they are in South Dakota. For instance, over the past five years, cow number have increased by only 7 percent in neighboring Iowa.

Mitch Schulte, executive director of the Iowa State Dairy Association and farmer relations representative for the Midwest Dairy Association, notes a few California dairies have moved into northwest Iowa over the years, but not a lot of expansion has been occurring over the past several years because of low milk prices.

“As a dairy goes out of business, the operator down the road is given an opportunity to expand,” says Schulte. “In a lot of situations, where a dairy farmer knows that the next generation wants to come into the farm, operations are expanding to support two families, or they look to efficiencies, like robotics, to cut costs.”

Over the past five years, Iowa dairies have indeed become more efficient, with output per cow increasing by 7.1 percent, compared with the national average of 5.2 percent. Iowa’s 12.3 percent gain in total milk production over the past five years has also outpaced the U.S. average of 7.5 percent, according to USDA data.

While Schulte notes that most of the processing plants in the Midwest are running at capacity and are not taking on more milk, that’s not the case in South Dakota. Valley Queen Cheese in Millbank, S.D., recently expanded and is now processing 1 million pounds of additional milk a day, and Agropur is in the process of expanding its Lake Norden cheese plant, which will require the milk of another 85,000 cows — a 72 percent increase—by late 2019 or early 2020, Post says.

“A number of dairies have completed construction in South Dakota this year, and there is a 10,000-cow dairy already permitted that will be built next year,” Post adds. “Dairies representing another 25,000 to 30,000 cows are already permitted, and about 15,000 of those cows represent producers coming in from other states, one from Minnesota and one who owns a dairy in both Washington and Oregon.”

Dorland thinks U.S. cow numbers will increase over the next five to 10 years, but only slightly. “Farms are looking at ways to be more efficient. Genetics, cow comfort, herd health and nutrition are all evidence of doing more with less. That any dairying region in the world can continue to deploy cows at the pace of the last 20 years is highly unlikely given environmental regulations,” she says. “It seems, efficiency will be where most expansion comes from in the next decade.”

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The FDA is planning a series of four one-day meetings before year’s end to discuss draft guidance for “Standards for the Growing, Harvesting, Packing and Holding of Produce for Human Consumption.” The meetings are scheduled for Nov. 27 in Portland, Ore. (Hilton Portland Downtown); Nov. 29 in Anaheim, Calif. (Doubletree Suites by Hilton/Anaheim Resort Convention Center); Dec. 11 in Albany, N.Y. (Hilton Albany); and Dec. 13 in Atlanta (Embassy Suites Atlanta at Centennial Olympic Park). Additional meeting specifics, including information on how to register for the meetings, will be made available on the FDA public meetings website and in the Federal Register.

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Alternative Energy Development (AED) broke ground this week on a wood pellet manufacturing plant in Copiah County, Miss., that is projected to process 1 million tons of pulp wood a year and ship 500,000 tons overseas. AED Principal Gary Ogle anticipates that the facility will provide a big economic boost for the community, employing 62 people with an annual payroll of $2.7 million. In addition, AED estimates there will be four people working in the woods for each employee at the plant, adding up to 300 jobs for the southwest Mississippi county. The county has over 330,000 acres of timber according to Mississippi State University. Statewide, Mississippi has 19.7 million acres of timber, with a 2017 production value of nearly $1.4 million. The 130,000 square foot plant is scheduled to begin operating in roughly 14 months.

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President Donald Trump signed the Water Resources Development Act of 2018 into law last week, reauthorizing investments in infrastructure improvements that will make it easier to ship agriculture products and other goods to U.S. harbors over the country’s inland waterways. The measure was approved by the House and Senate with strong support from both parties. “These laws are essential federal commitments to improving the harbors, ports, waterways, locks, dams and other water infrastructure that makes our transportation network more efficient…,” said House Transportation and Infrastructure Chair Bill Shuster, R-Pa. The American Soybean Association supported the reauthorization, saying it would “continue the progress toward updating our inland waterways infrastructure that is vital to the movement of soybeans.”

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Grocery Manufacturers Association CEO Geoff Freeman, who was installed in June, has announced four new members of his leadership team. Betsy Booren is joining GMA as senior vice president of science and technology; Brandon Partridge is coming aboard as senior vice president of member engagement; Katie McBreen will be vice president of communications and research; and Katie Denis is the new senior director of industry narrative. Booren currently serves as a senior policy advisor on regulatory compliance, food safety, nutrition and related topics at Olsson Frank Weeda Terman Matz. Partridge is senior vice president for industry development at the American Frozen Food Institute. McBreen comes from the National Retail Federation, where she led strategic campaigns around NRF’s industry and advocacy priorities. And Denis previously worked for the U.S. Travel Association. Says Freeman: “We’re bringing together a highly effective, results-driven team with proven association experience to shepherd the organization into its next chapter.”  

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue officiated at the swearing-in of Scott Angle, the new director of the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, who will be overseeing the planned move of NIFA outside of Washington, D.C. He previously was CEO of the International Fertilizer Development Center in Muscle Shoals, Ala., and before that served as the dean and director of the College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences at the University of Georgia for 10 years.

Neil Chatterjee, a former adviser to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on farm policy and other issues, was named by President Trump to be chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Chatterjee joined FERC, which regulates the interstate transmission of electricity, natural gas and oil and licenses hydropower projects, in August 2017.

West Virginia University’s Daniel J. Robison was named the next endowed dean of Iowa State University’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences and director of the Iowa Agricultural and Home Economics Experiment Station. Robison, dean of the WVU Davis College of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Design, and director of the West Virginia Agriculture and Forestry Experiment Station, will begin the new job March 31, 2019.

Bradley McKinney is settling into his new job as senior advisor, global markets, at the Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration. McKinney, a former director of government affairs at Michael Torrey Associates, is the son of Ted McKinney, USDA’s undersecretary for trade and foreign affairs.

Business Roundtable has hired Paul H. DeLaney III as a vice president overseeing trade and international engagement policy. DeLaney, currently a partner at the Kyle House Group, will join the CEO organization on Nov. 5. In the past, Delaney has served as international trade counsel for the Senate Finance Committee and deputy chief of staff at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. He succeeds David Thomas, who previously led trade policy efforts at the Roundtable and is serving as chairman of Trade for America.

Phil Karsting was named the new vice president of policy for the World Food Program USA. Karsting is a former administrator of the Foreign Agricultural Service at USDA. WFP USA supports the mission of the UN World Food Programme, the world’s leading humanitarian agency dedicated to ending global hunger. Prior to joining FAS, Karsting served in several key positions on Capitol Hill, including chief of staff to Senator Herb Kohl, D-Wis. Karsting also served as senior analyst for the Senate Budget Committee.

The Trump administration appointed Barry Bushue as the new state executive director for the USDA Oregon Farm Service Agency. Earlier this month Bushue stepped down as president of the Oregon Farm Bureau after serving in the post for nearly 20 years. Moving up as the new state Farm Bureau president is Sharon Waterman, a rancher with timber, cattle and sheep in Bandon, Ore., and a member of the OFB board since 1999.

Congratulations to Sarah McKay on her promotion at the National Corn Growers Association. McKay had been manager of market development – now she’s the director. McKay, who joined NCGA in August 2017, replaces Jim Bauman, who was promoted to the position of vice president of market development.

AGCO Corporation appointed Eric Hansotia to the new position of chief operating officer, effective Jan. 1. Hansotia is currently senior vice president, global cycle and fuse-connected services. In the new job he’ll be responsible for AGCO’s regional commercial operations as well as its global product management, engineering, manufacturing and supply chain functions. Before joining AGCO in 2013, Hansotia spent 20 years with Deere & Co. where he held several leadership positions including senior vice president, Global Harvesting, and vice president, Global Crop Care.

Retired Marine Corps Lieutenant General John Castellaw has been appointed to the board of directors of the international development organization Cultivating New Frontiers in Agriculture. Castellaw is CEO of Farmspace Systems LLC, a drone-based precision agriculture data collection company he co-founded following a 36-year career in Marine Corps aviation. 

Mike Traxinger, the in-house corporate attorney for the Agtegra Cooperative, is the new president-elect of the American Agricultural Law Association. Aberdeen, S.D.-based Agtegra was formed earlier this year when the South Dakota Wheat Growers merged with the North Central Farmers Elevator.

The National Grocers Association is adding two new members to its board of directors. They are: Jay Ard, vice president of industry affairs at The Coca-Cola Company, and Kevin Proctor, chief investment officer of Save-A-Lot Food Stores. NGA is the trade association representing the independent supermarket industry.

Longtime Campbell Soup lobbyist Kelly Johnston deregistered as a lobbyist last week after being criticized for tweeting that George Soros’ Open Society Foundation had planned and was executing the migrant caravan moving through Mexico. (Open Society says it has nothing to do with the caravan.) A company spokesman said the opinions expressed by Johnston, Campbell’s executive VP for government affairs, are his own and do not represent the position of Campbell Soup. Keith McLoughlin, the company’s interim CEO and president, wrote to Open Society saying that Johnston had been planning to leave the company next month. Johnston previously served as secretary of the U.S. Senate and as staff director for the Republican Policy Committee.

Ron Ratto, president of Ratto Bros. Inc. near Modesto, Calif., is the new board chairman at Western Growers. Ratto Bros. farms over 1,000 acres, producing a variety of crops including fresh herbs, greens and other vegetables. Ratto joined Western Growers board in 2013 and has served in numerous roles including senior vice chairman and Political Action Committee chair. He will serve as board chair for one year, replacing Craig Reade, partner at Bonipak Produce.

Cargill is making some changes to its top leadership team. David Dines will become the company’s chief financial officer as of Dec. 1. He has previously led global trading businesses in the financial and industrial sectors and is responsible for the creation and growth of Cargill’s risk management business. The current CFO, Marcel Smits, will move into a new strategic role, assuming leadership of Cargill Asia Pacific region. Anna Richo will join Cargill in January as general counsel, chief compliance officer and corporate secretary. She most recently served as executive vice president and general counsel of UCB, a Belgium-based global biopharmaceutical company. She succeeds Laura Witte, who retired as Cargill’s general counsel on May 31, after 33 years of service.  

Greg Fogel has left the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition, after nearly a decade with the organization, most recently as policy director. Prior to joining NSAC, Fogel worked as a campaign coordinator, an educator, a researcher, and an advocate in the U.S. and abroad.

A new FFA leadership team was elected at the organization’s National Convention last week in Indianapolis. Luke O’Leary, a California resident attending Texas A&M, is the new national president, and Layni LeBlanc, from Louisiana State, is the new secretary; Adrian Schunk, Michigan State, was elected eastern region vice president; Ridge Hughbanks, Oklahoma State, is the new VP for the central region; Jordan Stowe, Auburn University, was elected southern region VP; and Shea Booster, Oregon State University, is the new western region vice president.

U.S. dairy giant Borden appointed Eduardo Martinez vice president of direct store delivery. Martinez joins Borden from PepsiCo, where he spent 20 years in various leadership roles. Most recently, he led the Gatorade, Tropicana, Naked and Hydration brands for the 7-Eleven team.

The United Egg Producers elected new board officers at its recent annual meeting in Maui, Hawaii. Brian Barrett of Texas is the new chairman; Tom Hertzfeld Jr. of Ohio is vice chair; Craig Giroux of New York is treasurer; and Mike West of California is the new secretary. The organization also honored four individuals “who have made a lasting impact on the U.S. egg farming community.” They include: Linda Reickard, who worked for UEP for over 35 years, before retiring in 2012; Dr. Jeff Armstrong, currently the president of California Polytechnic State University, who helped establish UEP’s certified animal welfare program in 2002; and Kurt Lausecker, an organic egg farmer in Raymond, Ohio, who, as chair of UEP’s Long Range Planning Committee, was instrumental in the consolidation of UEP’s regional offices to a headquarters location in Atlanta. The group also posthumously honored longtime UEP member and industry leader Gregg Clanton with its highest honor, Egg Producer of the Year. Clanton, who died in February, had served on the UEP board since 1997.

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